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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Ron Trenda

Weekend weather: Rain, thunderstorm chances highest Friday night and Sunday

Northern Minnesota will see some rain Saturday and Sunday

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Parts of Minnesota are still in drought and will welcome the rain that’s in our weekend forecast. Many locations will see between 1 and 2 inches of rain between Friday afternoon and Monday morning.

Timing of the rain and thunder

Much of Minnesota and Wisconsin will have periods of rain Friday afternoon, with an isolated thunderstorm also possible.

Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected in most of Minnesota and Wisconsin Friday evening and overnight Friday night.

During the daylight hours of Saturday, the best chance of rain and embedded thunderstorms will be in northern Minnesota. Periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected in Minnesota and Wisconsin Saturday night and Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 7 a.m. Saturday to 7 p.m. Sunday:

rt0426rad
NAM simulated radar from 7 a.m. Saturday to 7 p.m. Sunday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

NOAA’s Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) model shows a similar precipitation pattern during that time period:

rt0426rad2
FV3 simulated radar from 7 a.m. Saturday to 7 p.m. Sunday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Use the models as a general outlook, since thunderstorm coverage can’t be predicted with high accuracy two days in advance. Breaks in cloud cover during peak heating can lead to more extensive thunderstorm development.

Severe weather potential

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather (shaded darker green) in far southern Minnesota later Friday afternoon into Friday night:

rt0426d1
Severe weather outlook Friday afternoon through Friday night
NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

rt0328risk
Severe weather risk categories
NWS Storm Prediction Center

The severe weather outlook for 7 a.m. Saturday to 7 a.m. Sunday shows a marginal risk in southeastern Minnesota:

rt0426d2
Severe weather outlook Saturday and Saturday night
NWS Storm Prediction Center

In that time period, the marginal risk for southeastern Minnesota will tend to be mainly Saturday night.

Southeastern Minnesota is also in a marginal risk of severe weather Sunday and Sunday night:

rt0426d3
Severe weather outlook Sunday and Sunday night
NWS Storm Prediction Center

Check forecast updates as we go through the weekend.

Weekend temperatures

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 62 degrees on April 27. Metro area highs are expected to reach the upper 60s this Saturday.

Saturday highs will range from 40s in far northern Minnesota to lower 70s in the far southeast:

rt0427h8
Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Sunday high temps are forecast to be in the 50s in the Twin Cities metro area, with 40s in roughly the northern half of Minnesota and 60s in parts of far southern Minnesota:

rt0428h8
Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Some areas up along the North Shore of Lake Superior will have Saturday highs in the 30s.

It’ll be breezy this weekend.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.  

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