Severe weather likely across southern Minnesota Tuesday night; tornado watch for Iowa

We’re still on track for likely severe weather across southern Minnesota through Tuesday evening, and a tornado watch has been issued for much of western Iowa until 10 p.m.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks indicate that additional severe weather watches will likely be issued across parts of southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Squall line?

Many forecast models indicate a possible squall line with damaging wind signatures may develop across southern Minnesota and race along the Interstate 35 corridor just south of the greater Twin Cities by Tuesday evening.

NOAA’s Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model depicts a strong line of storms from the Twin Cities southward into this evening. The loop below runs between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. Tuesday.

Tornado potential

The primary threats with storms across Minnesota through Tuesday evening are high winds up to 70 mph and large hail greater than 1 inch in diameter. There is a strong tornado potential across Iowa, and a lesser threat across southern Minnesota with some storms.

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model helicity tracks indicate areas where rotation is strong. The highest chance for tornadoes favors Iowa, but we can’t rule out tornadoes in southern Minnesota.

Keep an eye out for a likely severe weather watch to be issued for much of southern Minnesota as we head into mid-afternoon Tuesday, and be ready for possible severe weather warnings across southern Minnesota into the evening.