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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Severe risk Wednesday: Scattered storms with large hail and high winds possible

Slight severe storm risk covers most of Minnesota Wednesday

Severe weather risk areas 3
Severe weather risk areas Wednesday
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

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Minnesota is in the risk zone for severe weather on Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center paints a big yellow zone across most of Minnesota Wednesday. That’s a slight risk (category 2 of 5) for severe weather. You can see the severe risk zone in the image at the top of this post.

Forecast models show an unstable air mass across Minnesota Wednesday. Models show widely varying solutions Wednesday, but multiple rounds of storms are possible.

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows the trend toward multiple storm clusters drifting generally southeastward on Wednesday:

NOAA HRRR model 2
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model between 7 a.m. Tuesday and midnight Thursday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Large hail risk

The atmospheric profile Wednesday favors sustained updrafts capable of growing large hailstones.

There’s a 15 to 30 percent chance for severe (1 inch or greater diameter) hail across most of Minnesota on Wednesday. There is a 10 percent chance for hailstones up to 2 inches in diameter or larger in the hatched area below!

Hail risk
The map shows the severe hail risk for Wednesday, including a 15-30 percent chance of 1-inch or greater diameter hail in the yellow area and a 10 percent chance of hail 2 inches in diameter in the hatched area.
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

It’s a similar picture for damaging winds above 58 mph around most of Minnesota with stronger storms Wednesday.

Severe wind risk Wednesday
The map shows severe wind risk for Wednesday. There's a 15-30 percent chance of winds of at least 58 mph within 25 miles of any location in the yellow zone.
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

These days are often hour to hour in terms of forecasting specific storm coverage and severity.

The best advice is to stay aware on Wednesday, expect severe weather watches and warnings, and have a plan to be in a safe shelter if needed.