Flood watch: Periods of heavy rain, thunder into Saturday
Drier pattern looks to take hold next week
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We’ll have periods of potentially excessive rainfall and thunder into early Saturday, some of it heavy with flooding potential. Next week looks drier overall.
Periods of rain and thunder into Saturday
A flash flood warning is posted for portions of Blue Earth and Nicollet counties through 2:30 PM Friday:
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1140 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Blue Earth County in south central Minnesota...
Southeastern Nicollet County in south central Minnesota...
* Until 230 PM CDT.
* At 1140 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
A flood watch is also posted for southern Minnesota through Saturday morning due to the potential for flash flooding from excessive rainfall.
Heavy rain fell overnight in southwestern and south-central Minnesota. Several locations reported 4 inches with more than 7 inches nearby in southeastern South Dakota.
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We’ll have scattered periods of showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be heavy with locally heavy rainfall. Much of midday and afternoon Friday will see more widely scattered activity before more storms fill in across southern Minnesota late afternoon into Friday night.
In addition, there’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather mainly in the southern third or so of Minnesota.
There could be several additional inches of rainfall in southern Minnesota with potentially locally heavier amounts. Below is the official National Weather Service forecast for rainfall 7 a.m. Friday through 7 p.m. Saturday.
Some of the most recent morning computer model runs are trending a bit more south with the heaviest rainfall. It’s still a question as to whether the heaviest rainfall shifts that far south. This is just one model. We’ll be watching how things develop later Friday very carefully.
There’s also a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) for southeastern Minnesota Saturday into Saturday night.
Most rain should taper off Saturday morning with mostly dry weather Sunday and Monday. We’ll also see warmer temperatures in the upper 80s by early next week and an overall drier pattern, thankfully.
Rising rivers
In addition to flash flood concerns in the near-term, rivers are continuing to rise into next week. How much rain and where in the next 24 hours will be critical to these forecasts.
The Mississippi River at St. Paul for example is forecast to reach a level that would be the highest in 23 years, beating 2019 crests. Regardless, major flood stage is forecast to be reached by Tuesday.
