Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Scattered rains into Tuesday. Nature’s fireworks on the 4th?

Another week of scattered rain and some thunderstorms

Twin Cities area forecast at a glance
Twin Cities area forecast at a glance
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

Get ready for another week of storm dodging, Minnesota.

This week brings a mix of sunshine and occasional thunderstorms. Wednesday looks like the nicest day this week, but we may be dodging thunderstorms on the Fourth of July.

Another wave of showers and thunderstorms rolls across Minnesota overnight into Tuesday morning. We’ll catch a break in the rain most of Tuesday, but a line of scattered storms could develop along the passing front again Tuesday afternoon just southeast of the Twin Cities.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows the likely progression of the rain zones between 7 p.m. Monday and 7 p.m. Tuesday:

NOAA HRRR model
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model forecast between 7 p.m. Monday and 7 p.m. Tuesday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Rainfall totals will range from a little rain to as much as 1 inch locally across parts of southeastern Minnesota through Tuesday.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast through Tuesday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Thankfully, the severe risk stays south of most of Minnesota through Tuesday. A severe weather outbreak is more likely across Iowa and Missouri Tuesday.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Tuesday
NOAA

Wednesday looks summery with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 80s!

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

Fourth of July rain and thunder?

Most forecast models continue to crank out scattered rain and thunderstorms across Minnesota on Thursday.

Here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model loop between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Friday:

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast
Rainfall forecast between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Friday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via College of DuPage weather lab

Stay tuned for the timing of rainfall as we get closer to the Fourth of July.