Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Glorious Wednesday; severe storms possible on July Fourth

Many fireworks displays moved to Wednesday night

Rainfall forecast
Rainfall forecast through Thursday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

Our rainy Fourth of July forecast has some communities moving their fireworks shows to Wednesday evening, including Excelsior and Waconia in the western Twin Cities suburbs.

High pressure brings plenty of warm sunshine Wednesday. Highs across Minnesota will top out mostly in the 80s south and 70s north.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The beautiful weather pattern will last through Wednesday night, so get out there and enjoy it.

Unsettled Fourth of July

There’s a good reason some fireworks displays have been moved to Wednesday night. A slowly moving low-pressure system brings scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Fourth of July.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV3 model shows scattered rain and thunderstorms favoring southern Minnesota on Thursday. The loop below runs between 7 a.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.

NOAA FV3 model
Finite­-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model between 7 a.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches look likely across much of southern Minnesota by Friday morning. There is a slight risk for severe storms across much of southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail and high winds are possible. A tornado can’t be ruled out.

An interesting trend started to emerge in some forecast models on Wednesday. They back off on rainfall a bit for parts of southern Minnesota. Here’s the 7 a.m. run for the European model:

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast through Thursday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

We’ll see if this is just a blip or not.

Highs on the Fourth of July will be mostly in the 70s across Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday
NOAA

The weekend looks like a mixed bag of sun and a few showers.