Scattered rain and slight 4th of July severe storm risk

We’ll be dodging showers and a few strong to severe storms across much of Minnesota this 4th of July.

A slow-moving low-pressure system will lolligag across Minnesota on Thursday. Expect scattered rain and some thunderstorms throughout the day into Thursday night. It won’t rain all day, but most areas will see a couple of hours of rain. And a few storms could be strong to severe especially Thursday afternoon into evening.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km model is similar to others that show a few separate rain and thunder waves Thursday from morning into Thursday night. The forecast model loop below runs between 9 a.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.

There is a slight severe risk for much of southern Minnesota on Thursday. A few factors like cloud cover could limit the number of severe storms, but those storms that get clear air and sunshine could become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and even a possible tornado.

Rainfall totals could be locally over 2 inches with stronger storms through Thursday night. But forecast model trends Wednesday have backed off on the notion of widespread multi-inch rainfall totals across most of southern Minnesota.

Rain lingers into Friday morning across eastern Minnesota. The rest of the weekend features a mix of sunny periods and scattered showers. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees most of this weekend across Minnesota.