Scattered rain into Friday morning; coldest 4th of July in 32 years

The forecast of a rainy 4th of July for much of Minnesota turned out to be spot on.

And it will likely go down as the coldest 4th of July in the Twin Cities in 32 years.

Waves of showers with embedded thunderstorms crossed much of Minnesota Thursday. The highest severe weather risk remained south of the greater Twin Cities area, but locally heavy rainfall totals are possible into Friday morning across southern Minnesota. With already saturated ground, it won’t take much rainfall to cause small creeks and streams to rise into early Friday.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center highlights the potential for flooding rains across parts of southern Minnesota.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

104 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ..Northern Plains...Upper Midwest Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 041658Z - 042258Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Slow storm motions (10-15 kts) combined with 1.5-2" rainfall rates in the most prolific cells may lead to some flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...

The 12z HREF suite remains quite aggressive with rainfall totals (2-4") through at least 22z as the ongoing activity expands and develops more. This is likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding, as much of the region is highly saturated in light of earlier rainfall events this month. NASA SPoRT 0-100 cm soil moisture percentiles depict soils nearly at capacity across the region, while numerous gauges at the the West Fork Des Moines and Mississippi River show Minor to Moderate observed flood stages. As such, flash flooding is considered likely going into this afternoon.

Fewer showers Thursday night?

Most forecast models suggest less coverage for showers Thursday night. For those that are still planning to attend fireworks displays that are still on I would bring some rain gear, but many locations could see a break in the rain Thursday night. There will still be scattered showers overnight into Friday morning.

NOAA’s HRRR model updates Thursday afternoon shows the trend. The forecast model loop below runs between 4 p.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Friday.

Overall rainfall totals could still exceed an inch across much of southern Minnesota by Friday morning.

We get a break in the rain across most of Minnesota from later Friday through most of Saturday. Right now Saturday looks like the best day of the weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s across Minnesota.

Scattered showers return on Sunday. The medium-range forecast models suggest a trend toward drier weather late next week.

We’ll see.