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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Heat builds through the weekend; severe risk mainly north

First 90s of 2024 are likely in the Twin Cities this weekend

European model (ECMWF) heat index values
Heat index values for 4 p.m. Sunday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

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Here comes the heat.

The hottest weekend of the year so far is on the way. Highs will build through the 80s into the 90s this weekend, and our hottest air mass of summer will come with a heaping scoop of tropical humidity.

Combine the two and the heat index could reach 100 degrees across parts of southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon. (See the map above)

We finally have a clear radar scope across most of Minnesota through Friday. Highs Friday will top out mostly in the 80s with some 90s in the Red River Valley.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The weekend brings plenty of hot and humid weather. Highs will run in the 90s across much of southern and western Minnesota this weekend.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

Humidity will ramp up starting Friday. A surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture will pump a plume of dew points in the 70s into Minnesota. I won’t be shocked to see dew points hit 80 degrees in parts of southern Minnesota on Sunday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the moisture plume surging north:

NOAA GFS dew point output
Global Forecast System dew point output between 7 a.m. Friday and 7 p.m. Sunday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Severe risk

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a slight (category 2 of 5) severe risk across much of Minnesota on Saturday and Sunday.

But a layer of warm air about 5,000 to 8,000 feet aloft will act as a cap over much of Minnesota. If storms can break the cap, they could be severe. The best chance for severe storms appears to favor northern Minnesota this weekend.

NOAA’s FV3 model is one that favors a few storms to severe storms mainly across northern Minnesota Saturday. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. Saturday.

NOAA FV3 model
Finite­-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model Saturday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Keep an eye out for possible severe weather watches and warnings this weekend.