Severe risk Wednesday
Forecast models differ on storm timing and coverage Wednesday.
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We’re on severe storms watch Wednesday across Minnesota. The highest potential for storms with destructive winds favors southwest Minnesota on Wednesday. (map above)
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a large slight risk (level 2 of 5) for much of Minnesota Wednesday.
The suite of forecast models we use is coming up with very different solutions for storm timing and coverage on Wednesday. This is not unusual in what we meteorologists refer to as ‘weak synoptic environments.’ Without strong and well-defined fronts to drive them, random storms can bubble up and create their own momentum in the Dog Days of summer.
Here’s an example of the differences we’re seeing in forecast models Wednesday. NOAA’s NAM model shows storms moving through southwest Minnesota around midday heading for the Twin Cities by late afternoon. The forecast models loop below runs between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. Wednesday.
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The latest European model run suggests a more cohesive line of storms in northern Minnesota Wednesday morning drifting southward toward the Twin Cities by later afternoon or early evening. The forecast model sloop below runs between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. Wednesday.
Highs on Wednesday will be steamy ahead of potential storms. We may tickle 90 degrees in the Twin Cities Wednesday afternoon.
Stay tuned for possible severe weather watches and warnings on Wednesday.
The table is set.