Young Black voters are becoming more conservative than their parents. Here's why
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Jen Iro, a 34-year-old from Texas, has been having a hard time with the current state of American politics. The last time she cast a ballot was for former President Barack Obama, and she doesn’t think she’ll vote this year either.
“[Politics are] not really important to me because as of right now, it seems to get worse and worse and worse, which really makes me more disinterested,” Iro explained.
Iro is one of a growing number of young eligible voters who are feeling disconnected from politics and unable to identify with a political party. With a lack of affordable housing, climate change and rising costs, some millennials and Gen Zers are feeling hopeless about a political system that they don’t believe has been catering to their needs.
Generally, young voters and Black voters tend to vote Democratic. In 2020, 92% of Black voters cast a vote for President Biden, while only 8 percent backed former President Donald Trump.
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However, there appears to be a shift within the Black electorate that has been widening over the years. According to Pew Research, 7 percent of Black voters over 50 currently identify as or lean Republican, while 17 percent of Black voters under 50 align with the Republican Party. It is unclear how Vice President Harris, as the Democrats' presidential hopeful, will fare with this group.
People tend to grow more conservative as they age. But among Black voters, younger generations may be the more conservative ones. In a pivotal election year, this conservative shift could have an impact on the upcoming presidential election.
Approximately 40 million members of Gen Z will be eligible to vote in November. Of that 40 million, almost half are young people of color, including nearly 6 million Black youth.
Christopher Towler is investigating why Iro and other young Black voters feel disconnected from politics. He’s an associate professor at California State University, Sacramento and the principal investigator of the Black Voter Project.
“[Black voters] know the importance of elections,” Towler said. “They understand what it means to have representation. But at the same time, they don't necessarily feel like they're being represented by either side of the aisle right now.”
Towler thinks that a lot of Black Americans who are less likely to vote, or vote less consistently, aren’t seeing what politicians and parties claim as “wins” for the Black community impact their individual lives. People may not see more opportunities for themselves, as are often touted by the Biden Administration, including lowering Black unemployment or increasing Black small business loans and grants.
“I think there's an overall sentiment that they want something to support, they really understand the importance of this moment,” Towler said. “But at the same time, they're not necessarily sure that their vote is going to change much.”
As part of the Black Voter Project’s 2024 national survey, Towler examined the level of Republican support among young voters.
“In the data that I collected, the highest percentage of Black people that say they're going to vote for Trump is among the 18- to 29-year-old cohort, with about 22% saying they'll vote for Trump,” Towler explained. “They're also the least supportive of the Democratic Party.”
Towler thinks this partially could stem from young people thinking of the Civil Rights Movement as distant history.
“We're getting into generations of young Black voters that are not just once removed, but maybe twice or three times removed from a civil rights generation,” Towler said. “The way that they form their identity is less likely to be directly attached to the civil rights struggle...they're less likely to be suspicious of political institutions and they're more likely to support Trump and the Republicans.”
Bernard Fraga, associate professor at Emory University, has also noticed this shift. To Fraga, this is simply a new era of Black voters.
“The narrative that the Democrats kind of own the change issue, as in the idea that people who want things to be different than they are now, that's been something that's been true for a long time,” Fraga said. “Now, there's some folks in the electorate, particularly young people, who see the Republican Party as representing change.”
R.C. Maxwell, a 35-year-old Republican from Arizona, has witnessed a lot of change within the party over the years. He doesn’t remember seeing much conservative outreach to young voters or voters of color before Donald Trump ran for president in 2015. Now, Maxwell says, the party is speaking directly to those groups.
He’s also noticed more young people gravitate toward the GOP as they seek economic opportunities.
“We want prosperity and we want secure borders and we want the American dream,” Maxwell said. “And only the Republican Party is speaking to this message because they have the policies in terms of limited government. Drill, baby, drill.”
Kiah Hopkins is a 20-year-old from Georgia who plans on voting for the Democratic ticket in November, but knows people her age who are Republican-leaning or looking at a third-party candidate.
“The thing that I hear a lot is, if a person is really conservative, they really like how the economics are handled by Republicans,” Hopkins said. “Usually with social issues, they tend to be more liberal. At least, like, my friends who maybe are in the middle or leaning conservative, they'll be more liberal on social issues and more conservative with economics.”
She says she has heard a lot of her peers say they aren’t planning to vote in the presidential election, and it concerns her.
“For people who say they're outright not voting just scares me because this is a privilege that we have, that our ancestors were able to fight for,” Hopkins said.
Copyright 2024, NPR
