Excessive heat warning Monday with severe storms possible late
Two bouts of cooler air will move through this week
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An excessive heat warning continues through 8 p.m. for southern Minnesota Monday. Severe storms are possible late Monday. Temperatures will cool throughout the week.
Very hot and humid Monday with strong to severe storms late
It’s going to be another steamy day Monday. Highs will be back in the low to mid-90s across southern Minnesota with some of the highest dew points of the summer — well into the 70s.
That combination of heat and high dew points will create dangerous heat index values over 100 degrees this afternoon and evening.
After the heat will come the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms are likely to develop in the eastern Dakotas late Monday afternoon and evening and track east. There could be multiple rounds of storms Monday night. Some showers will linger into Tuesday morning.
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There’s an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather across southern Minnesota late Monday into Monday night.
The main threats for most of southern Minnesota will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Intial storms could produce a tornado threat primarly in eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model shows this possibility of damaging wind gusts. Red and yellow contours are severe gusts through late Monday evening:
The limiting factor for today’s severe weather potential will be a strong capping inversion or layer of very warm air aloft that prevents air from rising. The thinking today is that the cold front to the west will provide enough forcing to break through this layer and produce storms.
In addition to the severe threat, a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall with locally higher amounts possible into early Tuesday.
Tuesday will be cooler but still above normal, mostly in the low 80s south to low 70s north.
Another cool front will bring another rain chance Wednesday night into Thursday and cooler temperatures. Highs will be mainly in the 70s Thursday and Friday.
Cooler than normal temperatures and below normal precipitation are the forecast in the 6 to 10 day outlook:
