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Politics and Government News
Feven Gerezgiher

Report: Minnesota youth have huge potential to shape the 2024 presidential election

A sign reads "Voting" with an arrow to the left.
A sign directing people where to vote at Temple Israel polling station in Minneapolis.
Kerem Yücel | MPR News 2023

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Young people in Minnesota will have some of the most impactful votes in the nation this election cycle, according to a recent analysis from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University. 

CIRCLE is a nonpartisan research center focused on youth civic engagement. 

Its recently released 2024 Youth Electoral Significance Index examined where people ages 18 to 29 across the political spectrum are most likely to shape presidential, Senate and House races this year. The index considers factors like projected competitiveness, voting laws, past youth participation and socioeconomic attributes. 

CIRCLE ranked Minnesota as the number six state in the country for “youth electoral significance” in the presidential race, reflecting where young voters have the highest potential to decide their state’s picks. 

The report credits higher voter registration across the state generally, as well as policies like pre-registration and automatic voter registration, a high median income and low unemployment in Minnesota, and a tendency for young people to vote for different candidates from older adults — the “youth vote differential” — which means they can shift outcomes in races projected to be competitive.

It also cites a strong history of youth voter turnout. Minnesota had the highest youth voter turnout in the country in 2022 and the second highest in 2020, according to CIRCLE. 

The report anticipates young voters in the 2nd Congressional District will have a huge impact in the match-up between U.S. Rep Angie Craig, a Democrat running for reelection, and Republican Joe Teirab. It’s one of the most watched races for U.S. House and expected to be one of the most competitive and expensive in Minnesota. 

Researchers shared an estimated 41 million Gen Z-ers will vote this November, reflecting a sizable and diverse electorate. 

“To us, this is a way to flag and remind people that young people are absolutely stakeholders in these elections,” said Abby Kiesa, CIRCLE’s deputy director, in a media briefing on Wednesday.