High fire danger Wednesday; roller coaster temperatures this week
Little or no rainfall in sight for the next 10 days
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It’s pretty parched across Minnesota these days.
Dew points in the 20s and 30s are typical for the desert southwest. But gusty southwest winds have pushed that desert dry air into Minnesota.
The combination of a dry landscape, warm temperatures. low humidity and high winds have combined to produce high fire danger across much of Minnesota.
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Red flag warnings are in effect until 7 p.m. for most of southwestern Minnesota:
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 934 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 ...NEAR-CRITICAL TO RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY... .The cold front moving into Minnesota this afternoon has already cause wind gusts to increase ahead of it with peak gusts from 30-35mph being observed generally south of the Minnesota River, with gusts north of the river generally within 30mph. The most concerning fire weather conditions and upgrade to Red Flag conditions is expected south of the Minnesota River where the combination of wind gusts exceeding 30mph and RH dropping into the 20s is expected through the afternoon. Areas north of the Minnesota River are expected to have a timing difference between the strongest gusts happening before noon and RH dropping below 30 later in the afternoon at which point gusts will be in the mid 20s. Elevated conditions are present everywhere such that an additional Special Weather Statement will be issued once the current one expires to cover the entire MPX CWA outside of the Red Flag Warning.
Temperature roller coaster ahead
As of this post, we’re heading toward 80 degrees in the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.
Our next cold front blows through by Thursday morning. Temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler in most areas Thursday.
The warmup resumes Saturday with a one-day shot at 80s before a cooler Sunday.
Warm again next week
Forecast models suggest more 70s again next week with another shot at 80 degrees as we move deeper into October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlooks continue to lean warm this month. Unfortunately, there is little or no rainfall in sight for the next 10 days.
We’re now in a race against the seasonal clock to get meaningful widespread rainfall into soils before the freeze-up in December.
Stay tuned.