Why are we seeing so many northern lights this year? Another show possible Thursday night

Have you seen them yet?

It’s been an unusually active year for auroras above Minnesota. Just last Monday we saw a pretty good show. And it was the fourth time this year we’ve seen an active northern lights show pulsate above Minnesota.

Now, the sun is blasting yet another burst of energy toward Earth.

If the burst tickles our atmosphere just right, we could see another northern lights show on Thursday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a severe geomagnetic storm watch for Thursday night:

G4 (Severe) Storm Watch for 10-11 October

published: Wednesday, October 09, 2024 14:44 UTC

A fast coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the Sun the evening of 8 October, 2024, and is likely to arrive at Earth on 10 October. This CME has been analyzed and speed estimates are 1200 to 1300 km/s. This makes for a potential arrival time as early as the morning to midday of 10 October EDT. There is potential to reach G4 (Severe) upon arrival of this CME and throughout its passage. We won’t know the characteristics of the CME until it arrives 1 million miles from Earth and its speed and magnetic intensity are measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites.

Active solar cycle 25

So why is this year so special for northern lights? One reason is we’re in the midst of solar cycle 25. And the sun has been super active.

It turns out this solar cycle has been very good at producing auroras visible over Minnesota. And our dry weather pattern has produced many clear sky nights so we can see the shows.

My colleague Minnesota Now host Cathy Wurzer talked about it with Bob Lysak, a professor at the School of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Minnesota. 

Well, we're at-- the solar activity undergoes an 11 year cycle and we're not only very close to the peak of that cycle, but this particular solar cycle has been stronger than usual. It's something about 50% higher than the predicted values at this point. So there's been a lot more solar activity.

Of course, other factors that come into play is, of course, the sun will shoot out these blobs of plasma in all different directions. And of course, only when it hits the Earth does it affect us and causes aurora. So in a sense, there's a matter of luck where we've been in line to catch some of these CMEs, as we call them, coronal mass ejection, and they hit the Earth to make our auroras.

Another factor that comes in is that the weather has been pretty good. The atmospheric weather in the previous solar cycle of about 11 years ago, there was quite a bit of magnetic activity, but it seemed like it was a cloudy day every time. And of course, if it's cloudy, unless you get up in an airplane or something, you can't see the aurora.

So we’re living in rare times for seeing northern lights this year in Minnesota. And another possible opportunity to see them arrives Thursday night.

Stay tuned.