Dry October: Minimal precipitation chances in the forecast
Record rainfall for desert southwest
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Our recurring pattern of dry and warm weather continues. This week, Tuesday and Thursday are the only hints of potential precipitation in the extended forecast. As a result, this October could end up ranking among the driest on record.
Just how dry is it?
Very dry conditions persist not only in Minnesota but throughout the Upper Midwest and Central Plains. Many areas are experiencing a rainfall deficit of more than 3 inches, with only a small fraction of normal precipitation recorded from September to mid-October.
Record rainfall for Roswell, N.M.
The parched, dry land in the Upper Midwest could have greatly benefited from the moisture stored in the Four Corners region.
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A powerful upper-level low-pressure system unleashed heavy rainfall and flooding across southeastern New Mexico. Roswell experienced a record-breaking 5.78 inches of rain in just a few hours, nearly half of its annual average of just under 13 inches!
Unfortunately, the flooding resulted in the tragic loss of two lives and left several dozen others injured.
This system can be seen on the current water vapor loop just northeast of the Four Corners region. Unfortunately, it will stay to our south, once again depriving us of the much-needed moisture.
Seasonal temps return; rain chances north
Seasonal temperatures are returning on Wednesday, bringing with them some rain chances to the north. North, northeastern Minnesota could see anywhere between one-quarter and one-half inch of rainfall.
Forecast models indicate a disturbance moving through on Thursday that could bring another chance for showers to the state, but I wouldn't count on it.
Possible record for dry October
If October ended Monday, it would be the driest on record. Even with 10 days remaining in the month, there’s still a chance it could rank among the driest Octobers ever.
1952 0.01 of an inch
1895 0.05 of an inch
1889 0.06 of an inch
1953 0.15 of an inch
1978 0.19 of an inch
2022 0.24 of an inch
Given our current trends, it's possible we could also rank high in the temperature category. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center's six to 10-day and eight to 14-day outlooks indicate above-average temperatures through the end of the month.
