Near-record warmth Monday and Tuesday; midweek rain possible

We’re back in familiar territory Monday and Tuesday: anomalous warmth that could break records. A cold front will touch off rain late Tuesday into Wednesday. 

Near-record warmth Monday, Tuesday with midweek rain 

Here we go again. Highs will be back in the 70s across southern Minnesota, nearly 20 degrees above normal. We’ll have filtered sun through high clouds. The record high for Oct. 28 in the Twin Cities is 75 set in 1948. The record for St. Cloud is 73 in 1912.

It will be even warmer across southern and especially southeastern Minnesota ahead of a cold front. Highs could top out near 80 degrees for the Twin Cities and parts of southern Minnesota. The record high in the Twin Cities is 78 for Oct. 29, set in 1922. 

Tuesday will bring showers to northwestern Minnesota behind a slowly moving cold front. That chance of rain will expand across the state into Tuesday night and Wednesday as the cold front moves southeast.

There’s even a chance we could see one or two strong thunderstorms late Tuesday. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms is forecast for late Tuesday.

Rainfall totals look to be heaviest in northeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin-southeastern Minnesota. In those areas, one-half inch to 1 inch of rain could fall.

In the Twin Cities and central Minnesota, we’ll have to watch for impacts from the potential “dry slot” of the system. That could cut rainfall totals for those areas. The European model hints at this scenario:

There could be some snow showers mixing in for northern Minnesota and western Wisconsin late Wednesday into early Thursday as colder air wraps into the departing system. The showers look to wrap up Halloween morning, making for a dry evening for trick-or-treaters.

It will be seasonably chilly though Thursday evening with temperatures in the 40s across southern Minnesota and 30s north. Another chance of rain develops over the upcoming weekend.