Nice November weekend; widespread soaking rain next week
Next week's storm trending toward mostly rain for much of Minnesota.
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We’re still enjoying charmed weather this autumn in Minnesota.
Friday brought another beautiful November day. Temperatures reached the 50s south, with mainly 40s north. Minnesota rides the northern end of a relatively mild fall air mass drifting northward from Texas and the central plains states.
Saturday brings a stiffer south breeze with gusts up to 35 mph. But temperatures will reach the mid to upper 50s across the south. We could see a 60-degree temperature in southern Minnesota on Saturday afternoon.
A cool front Sunday will bring temperatures in the 40s north with highs to around 50 degrees south.
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Keep in mind the normal high and low temperatures for the Twin Cities this weekend are 42 and 28 degrees. So this weekend will be a good 10 degrees warmer than normal.
So far this month temperatures are running about 6 degrees warmer than normal in the Twin Cities. It looks like we’re on pace to record a top 10 warmest November pending temperatures in the next 2 weeks.
Mostly rain next week?
Forecast models continue to crank up a potent storm and push it into Minnesota from the south starting next Monday. The latest model trends favor a warmer atmosphere over Minnesota during the storm. That favors mostly rain for most of Minnesota on Monday, with some accumulating snow possible in the far north by Tuesday.
NOAA’s GFS model brings the leading edge of the rain shield into southern Minnesota Monday morning into midday. Rain should turn on in the Twin Cities Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. Rain could change to snow in the far northwest and north, but the Twin Cities now looks likely to see just flurries with a windy and much colder pattern as the storm sweeps by.
Overall precipitation totals look likely to exceed an inch across most of Minnesota. So this looks like a welcome widespread soaking for lawns and fields before soil freeze-up time.
NOAA’s GFS model pains some slushy accumulation in northern Minnesota next week with this system. It looks like we may dodge the snow zone for a little while longer in the south.
Temperatures look bracingly chilly behind the front next week. Lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s are likely by next Wednesday and Thursday.
The early look at Thanksgiving week looks seasonable with highs in the 30s north to 40s south.