Outspent 4-to-1, Republicans still made gains in state legislative elections

Up and down the ballot, Republicans had a good election. They’ll continue to control more legislatures than Democrats — 27 to 17 — a trend that dates back to 2010 elections when Republicans made a concerted push to win statehouse races ahead of redistricting.

The results didn’t amount to a sea change for either party this year. Republicans are celebrating after they chipped away at Democratic majorities and fended off expensive challenges in states the GOP narrowly controls. And Democrats netted some important victories in the battles for legislative majorities.

Democrats are still trying to build back from their 2016 rock-bottom, said Louis Jacobson, who writes about state legislatures for Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

“It’s sort of a fact of life for Democrats that they’re probably going to be in a little bit of a hole if you just count the state legislative chambers, because there are more solidly red states than there are solidly blue states just by counting the states,” he said. “These are things that will take, you know, maybe more than a cycle or two…It’s really building and making consistent gains over a couple of them.”

Nine states had significant shifts in who controls the legislature — parties either gained or lost majorities or supermajorities in at least one legislative chamber.

Riding on the coattails of President-elect Donald Trump, the GOP flipped control of the Michigan House, breaking the Democratic trifecta that ushered a wave of progressive policies in recent years under Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Republicans also gained enough seats to create a tie in the Minnesota House, likely leading to a power-sharing agreement in the chamber after two years of Democrats wielding control of all three branches of state government.

Republicans fended off Democratic challenges to vulnerable legislative majorities in Arizona, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, Democrats gained seats under new court-ordered political maps, but not enough to win legislative control in either chamber.

And in Pennsylvania — one of two split legislatures before this year’s election — Democrats held on to a one-seat majority in the House and Republicans retained control of the Senate.

Republicans also kept their narrow control of the Arizona Legislature, padded majorities in New Hampshire and gained enough seats to create supermajorities in Iowa and South Carolina — enough votes for lawmakers to override a governor's veto. They also broke Democratic supermajorities in New York and Vermont, an important victory for Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who will be able to more easily veto legislation without risk of being overridden by lawmakers.

Dee Duncan, president of the Republican State Legislative Committee, which funds GOP statehouse campaigns, said the results show that “Americans crave balance in their state capitals.”

“This is a major step for the state Republican coalition in its efforts to chip away at the control of legislative chambers in blue states and expand its majorities nationwide,” Duncan wrote in a statement.

Democratic wins

Dems netted a significant victory in North Carolina, where they flipped one state House seat, breaking apart the GOP supermajority. That'll be a boon for incoming Democratic Gov. Josh Stein, who also will be able to issue vetoes without being thwarted by Republicans. And though they didn't win a majority in either of Wisconsin’s chambers, Democrats celebrated winning 10 seats in the state Assembly, and 4 seats in the Senate.

“The DLCC and our campaigns successfully prevented a Republican wave from taking shape in our state legislatures,” Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, wrote in a statement. “Because of the progress we have made, nearly half the country will continue to have their rights and futures protected by at least one Democratic majority in their statehouse.”

But the results came with a high price tag. Democrats and aligned groups poured more than four times the amount supporting legislative candidates than Republicans did.

In all, Democratic-aligned groups said they would spend $175 million supporting legislative groups during the cycle. The DLCC set a $60 million budget. Forward Majority, a group aligned with Democrats, planned to spend $45 million. And The States Project, another progressive group, had a $70 million goal.

Republicans sounded the alarm on being outspent by Democrats ahead of the election. In an October memo, the RSLC announced an increase of their initial $38 million commitment to $44 million.

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