Broken tie in Minnesota House would give GOP muscle at start of 2025 session
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A bare, even temporary, Minnesota House majority would give Republicans power to do a lot.
They could investigate the administration of Gov. Tim Walz, move bills to the floor to put squeamish rivals on the record and start to set the session agenda in a budget year. It's all a possibility because a judge ruled Friday that a DFL candidate elected in November is ineligible to take the oath.
For more than a month, lawmakers and others who watch the Legislature were preparing for a rare 67-67 tie in the House. Now, Republicans are primed to gain at least a one-seat edge out of the gate, maybe even a two-vote margin.
There are two suburban-seat elections subject to legal challenges. One involves a seat decided by 14 votes and the other where the winner’s residency came under scrutiny.
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On Friday, a Ramsey County judge declared DFL Rep.-elect Curtis Johnson ineligible to take office. He ruled in favor of a Republican challenge to Johnson’s unusual living arrangement.
In an order that went point by point through evidence of shaky residency, Judge Leonardo Castro ruled that Johnson “did not meet residence requirements and is not eligible to serve as the representative for House District 40B.”
Johnson rented an apartment just inside the district borders in the Roseville area while often staying at a house he owned in Little Canada — which isn’t in the district.
While Johnson plans to appeal, the ruling itself could be grounds for the House to block him from being seated. That would leave Republicans with 67 seats to 66 for the DFL until a new election.
Johnson also suffered an early loss in the Supreme Court on Friday after justices denied his request to toss the case out on technical grounds.
The other case, involving DFL Rep. Brad Tabke’s narrow win over Republican Aaron Paul, is still pending. But a trial last week included testimony from voters whose ballots weren’t counted that would secure a Tabke win.
Should the Johnson seat go to a special election early next year – the timing and logistics of that are still in question – it would leave Republicans with a temporary majority for weeks into the 2025 session.
The session starts Jan. 14 but it appears unlikely a special election could be scheduled sooner than February.
The DFL would be favored to hold the Roseville district based on its political leanings; Johnson beat Republican Paul Wikstrom by about 7,500 votes.
But with the seat empty, Republicans would be positioned to elect the speaker. That’s Rep. Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring.
She had been designated by her caucus to ascend to the speaker’s chair or share power with Democratic Rep. Melissa Hortman under a tie. Those two helped broker an agreement to have equal representation on committees.
But Republicans would now be able to arrange things in their favor. Demuth suggested a power-sharing agreement would be on the shelf.
“The only need for a power-sharing agreement is if there’s a true tie. If there is less than a tie, then there’s clearly a majority,” she told MPR News earlier this month. “And even if it’s a temporary minority.”
On WCCO Radio on Friday, Demuth said Republicans had gained control amid the judge’s ruling. Hortman pushed back in a written statement.
“We expect to have a tied House when we start session on January 14,” Hortman said, also vowing an appeal of Castro’s decision to the Supreme Court.
Should the ruling stand, Republicans would still be contending with Democrats remaining in charge of the Senate and Walz back for the final two years of his term.
It takes 68 votes to pass any bill out of the House – so one more than Republicans hold.
But they can use the committee gavels to advance their goals. The majority party sets the daily agenda.
They are almost certain to summon Walz agency commissioners for hearings about problems in those departments, what they’re doing to prevent fraud or waste and if they have any places where money can be saved.
They can push bills toward the floor early in the session that can match GOP priorities. Those bills, maybe around taxes or anti-fraud measures, would put swing-district Democrats on the spot, too.
And because it’s a budget setting year, Republicans will have the Walz budget plan due in mid-January to begin picking through.
The Senate could be a bit unsettled too.
DFL Sen. Nicole Mitchell faces a felony burglary trial soon after session begins stemming from an April arrest in Detroit Lakes. Republicans and some Democrats want her to resign, but she’s been holding on. A settlement conference is scheduled for next Tuesday.
If there are one or more special elections, there might not necessarily be a simple reset in House leadership after those results are known.
Even if Democrats pull back to even in the House, Republicans might not entertain motions to pick a new speaker or remake committees.
Those motions could run into 67 to 67 votes, which would leave things as they are.