What's next for Canada? 5 questions will help decide the future after Trudeau

Canada is entering a major transition in its national politics after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed he will resign. Questions about his political future had been raging for weeks, but his exit raises even more issues.

After losing support within his own party and at the polls, Trudeau said on Monday that he will no longer lead the Liberal Party but will remain in office until a successor is elected.

Canadians now face months of changes, as first Trudeau's party and then the nation will vote for the next prime minister. Meanwhile, to the south, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has been making mocking comments about Canada, suggesting it could become the 51st state.

"The Canadians are rightly freaked out about Trump's repeated remarks about Canadian sovereignty," Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a non-profit polling firm based in Vancouver, tells NPR. She questions how Canada can effectively expect to engage with a new White House administration "when we basically now have a lame duck prime minister?"

Here's a rundown of questions about Canada's future:

When will the two key elections take place?

Canada's next general election had been set for Oct. 20, 2025, based on the timing of the last election in 2021. That plan is now changing drastically.

As Trudeau announced his resignation, he indicated that Parliament would be prorogued, or suspended, until March 24. When that session begins, rival parties say, they will immediately call for a non-confidence vote and force a new general election.

"The next general election depends on when the current government loses confidence, which will likely happen at the next sitting of Parliament," Semra Sevi, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto, tells NPR. "An election could be called as early as late March 2025."

That means the Liberal Party now has less than three months to select Trudeau's replacement — a vote in which every party member can cast a ballot. For now, the exact details of that process are unknown.

"We still don't know what the rules are going to be for Liberal Party members to select their leader," Kurl says, noting that Liberals must visit their rulebook because they haven't needed to choose a new candidate for more than a decade. She adds, "It all speaks to a really compressed timeline, and a much faster selection than may be ideal in this situation."

Trudeau could also request another prorogation, Sevi says. In the past, prime ministers have used these parliamentary suspensions as a delay tactic.

Who are the contenders to be the next prime minister?

The current favorite is Pierre Poilievre, whose Conservative Party has gained a 24-point lead over Trudeau's Liberals as of this week, according to the CBC's poll tracker.

Poilievre, a populist who served in former prime minister Stephen Harper's cabinet, has harnessed social media to tap into Canadians' frustrations over rising housing costs and inflation. He has often railed against the national carbon tax law enacted under Trudeau.

Also in the running: Jagmeet Singh, whose New Democratic Party has allied with the Liberals. His polling numbers are slightly lower than Trudeau's.

Among Liberals, recently resigned finance minister Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney, the former head of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, "are the leading names" to replace Trudeau, Sevi says, "though rising stars within the party could also emerge."

"The key for the Liberals will be choosing a leader who can rebuild the party's image and reconnect with disillusioned voters," she adds. "The party's future hinges on selecting a leader quickly and recalibrating its platform."

Liberals aren't the only ones needing to connect with voters.

"We're in a unique situation in Canadian politics at the moment," Kurl says. "Because traditionally when one leader is really unpopular, there is another leader who by contrast is very popular. What we're dealing with in 2025 in Canada is a situation wherein [among] the three leaders of the three major national parties… their unfavorability ratings are higher than their favorability ratings."

Their unpopularity signals a deep disconnect between voters and the political establishment, Sevi says, "indicating widespread dissatisfaction and frustration with the status quo, potentially leading to volatile election results."

What about Canada's relationship with the U.S.? 

Canadians' cost of living will be a central issue in the next election, Sevi says. But foreign policy — especially Canada's relationship with the U.S. — is also likely to be on voters' minds.

Trump's rhetoric about Canada could make him an "X-Factor" in the race, according to Kurl. The incoming president has threatened to impose new tariffs on Canada and has even commented on the possibility of the U.S. annexing Canada.

When Freeland resigned, she sharply criticized Trudeau, saying he didn't have a plan to deal with Trump. As Trudeau said he would step down, Trump said he wants Canada to be a U.S. state — and plans to use economic, not military, force to make that a reality.

"It's funny, but it's not funny," Kurl says of the prospect of being forced to join the United States. "Because It underscores something else, which is the tariff."

A U.S. tariff of 25% on Canadian exports could potentially lead to a loss of at least 1 million jobs in Canada and carve deeply into the country's GDP, she adds.

With Trudeau on the way out and Trump reiterating his plans, Kurl says voters may want to consider how candidates plan to engage with Trump.

"Does anyone in Canada have his ear?" she asks. "Can anyone in Canada gain his ear? And then how does that play on domestic politics?"

In recent comments, Trudeau and the leading candidates for the prime minister's job have rejected Trump's idea of annexing Canada and spoken against imposing new tariffs.

In a December poll, Poilievre was seen as the best choice to cope with Trump. Although he has been compared to the U.S. politician, the two don't hold identical views. Poilievre's Conservative Party recently called Trump's tariff threat "unjustified." Last month, Poilievre himself vowed in a CTV appearance, "Canada will never be the 51st state of the U.S."

Copyright 2025, NPR

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