Brian Bonner on the latest headlines from the war in Ukraine

[MUSIC PLAYING] HOST: This week's headlines on the war in Ukraine include intensified attacks on civilians in the Donetsk province, the UN's monitoring for violations against children, and US military aid that may not be as generous as expected. To explore these stories and more, NPR reporter Tim Nelson's been in touch with his longtime friend and colleague, Brian Bonner. Brian's a former journalist for the Saint Paul Pioneer Press and the former editor of the Kyiv Post, Ukraine's premier English language newspaper. Tim spoke with Brian yesterday.

TIM NELSON: Brian and I worked together for nearly a decade in Saint Paul at the Pioneer Press. I've talked to him a few times since the war in Ukraine started. He has a new job with a Polish NGO and has been in and out of Ukraine and Poland during the past month. Today, he's back in Minnesota to speak with me in person. Brian, welcome back to Minnesota Now.

BRIAN BONNER: I'm just glad I can be here in the studio, actually, considering everything that's going on, and grateful for your interest and NPR'S interest.

TIM NELSON: Well, how are you doing these days?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, I took a summer break. It's a little hard getting out of Ukraine. There's no air service, so you take a 24-hour train ride to Poland, hope it's not targeted. Fly in. And I'll be going back to Ukraine-- or back to Europe on Sunday.

TIM NELSON: You said it was pretty safe to take the train. But while the Russian military's been regrouping and resupplying, it looks like their attacks on civilian targets have been intensifying in recent days. Word this week that missiles killed at least three people in an apartment block in the Donetsk province. There was that missile attack on the mall in Kremenchuk. Is this a new phase?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, yeah. It's a continuation of the scorched earth phase, which is basically pummel cities with artillery fire. Overnight, there were attacks in major cities-- Kharkiv and Mykolaiv in the south, Odessa. There's attacks almost every day. So anywhere they hit, it's the Russian tactic, which is pummel with artillery. They come in with Russian forces, declare this as your land, give passports, and then claim that you're just defending yourself against attacks.

So we're in a very dangerous phase because as the Russians move east, pummeling everybody in its way, Ukraine appears set to launch a very key counter-offensive in the south to try to regain the port cities and access to the sea. So they've warned civilians to get out. And I think that's going to be the next bloodiest phase.

TIM NELSON: We've seen a lot of video on that. These missile attacks and artillery attacks are on TV a lot. But the UN announced Monday that they're going to start monitoring the war in Ukraine for violations against children, like killings, injuries, recruiting children to fight, sexual assaults, and other forms of sexual violence. What do you think they're going to find there in Ukraine?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, they're going to find a lot of war crimes if they look properly. The United Nations has a credibility problem because everything it does can be vetoed by Russia. Tons of war crimes happening on a constant basis.

How much of that the United Nations is going to find or really try to find is another question. And what they can do with it is the biggest question because you know how the United Nations works. I mean, Russia can block everything. So can China.

TIM NELSON: I read an analysis in the New York Times this weekend talking about the regular military conflict that said that the US may not be as generous when this most recent $54 billion aid package is gone, possibly by next spring. Can Ukraine hold out until then, or can they win? Can they hold the Russians off that long?

BRIAN BONNER: The Ukrainians are very worried about what's going to happen to Western interests and Western financial support. As I understand it, the money is thought to be enough, at least through the end of the year and possibly the first part of next year. President Zelenskyy has set the goal, the Ukrainian President, of getting this war over. And by that, he means regaining territory from the Russians this winter.

There's going to be a very active summer-fall military campaign from the Ukrainian point of view. They're going to give it everything they have with the new weaponry because I think the winter, Vladimir Putin is hoping that he will be able to use energy as a weapon, cutting off gas. Oil prices will be high. He's banking on the West losing interest.

Of course, nobody is obsessed with Ukraine as Putin is and subjugating Ukraine. But that's the big question. What's going to happen if we're still where we are now in this war of attrition, where it's not clear which side is winning? What's the response going to be from the West then? We just don't know.

TIM NELSON: Well, not just the West. The Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed frustration that China isn't interested in taking a side in this conflict recently. The Mexican president is in Washington after calling US support for Ukraine a crass error. I'm hearing now there's growing concern that the Nord Stream pipeline may stay shut down or be restricted after this week of maintenance. Can Ukraine keep widespread international opinion and support, even if it's not guns, as threats like recession loom here?

BRIAN BONNER: That's the key question. I think we have to think through the consequences again if Russia is able to subjugate and change the-- forcibly change the borders of another country. And the consequences, I still think, are going to be huge and bigger than the cost of supporting Ukraine. It's disappointing that so many people are on the sidelines. So many nations are on the sidelines, like China.

I hope they will come to see it as this is not the US fighting. This is the US supporting what I think is a just war, in this case. And I think most people view it that way. But you're right. The dangers are all over. Obviously, Putin is not an international pariah yet. And there's a lot of neutrality in Asia, in Africa, in the Middle East, in Latin America.

TIM NELSON: We were used to initially seeing this on the news every night. It's not on there as much right now. Give me a little sense of what it's like living near the front lines of this war. Are you on high alert all the time? What does it feel like to live there?

BRIAN BONNER: I think we're all still in a traumatized state. Every time I'm out of Ukraine, I feel a higher degree of safety. But Ukrainians are very worried that people are going to lose interest because they're busy with the fight. 6 million women and children mostly are still abroad. 6 million are internally displaced. The men are at the front.

I'm seeing the destruction of the Ukraine I used to know. And I'm not talking just militarily and with human lives but also society. People are not coming back. Mothers now have to make their choice. Are they going to send their kids to Ukrainian schools come September? High school grads are going to have to ask themselves, do I really want to study at a Ukrainian university?

The economy is devastated. Ukraine is borrowing huge sums of money just to keep going. It needs $5 billion. And it's the social fabric. It's the fact that my friends are gone, my Ukrainian friends are gone, and many of them are not coming back and the fact that you just can't live peacefully.

I mean, everybody is going to the front to hear about so-and-so died. This many people got killed in this city. Everybody wakes up with a casualty count. And the Ukraine that I knew is not coming back. I hope and pray and believe that it will fight to the end because it understands that-- people who talk about wanting a peace deal miss a couple elements.

One is a peace deal in which Ukraine loses territory rewards aggression. And so you're just going to get more aggression. And two, Vladimir Putin can't be trusted. And three, Ukrainians would rather-- it's not the US propping them up. Ukrainians would rather fight to the end rather than surrender to Putin.

TIM NELSON: And what's next for you? I assume you're going to go back to Ukraine.

BRIAN BONNER: Well, I got a great job now editing remotely, so I can edit from wherever. I have a computer and laptop. I would like to get back into Ukrainian-- I haven't really written about the war. I would like to start writing about it more because I feel-- I see that people are exhausted and not focused in. And so I think if I can make some contributions there, that'll be fine.

But I'm going to stay in journalism until the end. I'm going to stay in Ukraine. I'm going to stick with it. And I hope the world sticks with it because I mean, I can't emphasize this enough. We don't know the consequences, but they will be horrible if Vladimir Putin is just allowed to go on.

You saw him two weeks ago compared himself to Peter the Great. And he would really like to reassemble the geographic territory of imperial Russia, which is not that different than Soviet Union Russia. And that includes the Baltics, Finland, Poland, big places in Asia. So his appetite is huge.

People are really optimistic about a couple things, and that is the HIMARs and the missile systems and the air defense systems that are coming Ukraine's way. I don't think we know all of it because they're starting to use-- they would use systems and then tell us about it later. So I'm hoping that that's going to be-- I'm hoping that there's a lot more being deployed now. And I hope this southern counter-offensive is what you really want to watch for.

TIM NELSON: Well, we're glad you're back in Minnesota and safe and sound, and we hope you stay that way wherever you go.

BRIAN BONNER: Thank you, Tim.

HOST: Nice to hear Brian's voice. That was NPR reporter Tim Nelson speaking with Brian Bonner, a former journalist for the Saint Paul Pioneer Press. He's also the former editor of the Kyiv Post, which is Ukraine's premier English language newspaper. You can hear all of Tim Nelson's conversations with Brian Bonner online at nprnews.org. They've been talking since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.