Wednesday weather update: Storm and smoke clouds on the horizon
Smoke and air quality early Tuesday: We're watching an area in Canada that could descend into Minnesota Thursday.
National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration
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The summer of smoke is not quite over ... effective Thursday, an air quality alert hangs over most of the state. MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner joined MPR News host Cathy Wurzer with the details of the alert, plus the weather forecast for the week to come.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
CATHY: The summer of smoke is not quite over. There is a big air quality alert that will go into effect for really most of the state for tomorrow. It's already been issued. Tomorrow is the day. Here with details of that plus the potential for some bumpy weather is our own Chief Meteorologist, Paul Huttner. Hey, welcome back.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy. Good to talk to you. And boy, here we go again with the summer of smoke.
CATHY: Shoot. Well, this looks like it's a pretty big one.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Look, this is interesting because I'm looking at some of the air quality readings up around Lake Winnipeg. There are 300 plus, Cathy. There is a thick plume of smoke right now in Southern Ontario, Manitoba, and it's headed this way tomorrow. It's from the Canadian wildfires up in the Northwest Territories.
And NOAA's RAP model, one of the models that tracks the smoke plumes, are bringing this plume down over Minnesota. There's a cold front in Northwest Minnesota right now that tends to drive air to the surface so that smoke that's been elevated gets concentrate down at the surface. And it looks like it'll get pushed right across Minnesota tomorrow from north to south, that plume.
In fact, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency forecasting condition red for the northern half of Minnesota tomorrow, probably orange for the Twin Cities, they're talking about a significant smoke event that could rival July and August of 2021. So conceivably, this might be the worst smoke event of summer for parts of Minnesota as this comes south tomorrow. Also, Cathy, I see new fires that have been erupting in parts of Montana, Idaho, Washington State, and they're belching out smoke back there.
So it looks like we're going to see many more smoke days as we go forward. By the way, it was interesting. The record was 42, air quality alert days in 2021 for Minnesota. We were at 39 as of a couple of weeks ago. So I think with this latest alert, we're up over the record for the number of days that we've had an air quality alert in Minnesota.
CATHY: Wow. I just saw some photographs earlier this morning. Yellowknife, part of the Northwest Territories in Canada, they were considering evacuating parts of Yellowknife, the town, because the smoke was so thick that the firefighting aircraft were grounded, and the pictures just looked disgusting. Oy.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY: So sad.
PAUL HUTTNER: It's historic. As we've said, they've burned six times average the amount of forest in Canada this year and more than twice the previous record. So this is just an apocalyptic fire season up in Canada this year.
CATHY: Say, what about potentially the threat for some severe weather here today?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. So here's the deal. This front is cutting into Northwest Minnesota right now up around Hallock. There are a few showers and thunder showers up just approaching Roseau and Warroad right now. That front will move across northern Minnesota this afternoon. We're going to see storms develop North Central, Northeastern Minnesota as we go through the afternoon. That front will sweep down to the Twin Cities this evening.
Now, most of the short-range models I'm looking at, Cathy, say that the bulk of the storm development will be in Northeastern Minnesota. Maybe down along I-35 South of Duluth, Twin Cities that may happen later. And it may happen just southeast of us. Some of the models I'm seeing saying these storms could develop either as they pass or just get past the Twin Cities around 8:00 or 9:00 this evening.
So we'll watch that. Best chance for storms, north of the Twin Cities, slight risk zone from the North Shore, Iron Range, all the way South I-35 through Duluth, Twin Cities, down to about Albert Lea. So best chance, Northeastern Minnesota. We have a lesser chance for severe storms here in the Twin Cities this evening, and we'll get close to 90 before then.
CATHY: Oh. So yeah, if you like to sweat, you got some weather coming your way.
PAUL HUTTNER: Where's our weather?
CATHY: Yeah.
PAUL HUTTNER: I know you love this stuff.
CATHY: I do. It's true. I mean, it's summer. You might as well enjoy. But the weekend does look, I have to say, a little crispy.
PAUL HUTTNER: It does. So the smoke in 70s tomorrow, a little warmer Friday. We're back up into the mid 80s. It looks hot this week at mid-90s and probably right into next week. Dew points, 60s. Maybe up around 70. Cathy, the European model has us in the mid-90s right up through about next Tuesday or Wednesday. So this could be another heat wave we've already had 20 days of 90 degree plus in the Twin Cities. Our average is 13. We could be at 23, 24, 25 by the middle of next week. So we're getting our money's worth this summer.
CATHY: With about 30 seconds left what's on Climate Cast.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. That Montana lawsuit, we've been following it on Climate Cast. 16 young people between 5 and 22 sued the state for the right to a clean and healthful environment. Well, guess what, they won this week. So we'll talk with Amanda Eggert from the Montana Free Press. She's been in the courtroom the whole time. And see how they're reacting to that victory. This could have wider implications, Cathy, legally for Climate lawsuits around the country.
CATHY: All right, Mr Huttner. Thank you so much.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, C.
CATHY: That's our Chief Meteorologist, Paul Huttner.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy. Good to talk to you. And boy, here we go again with the summer of smoke.
CATHY: Shoot. Well, this looks like it's a pretty big one.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Look, this is interesting because I'm looking at some of the air quality readings up around Lake Winnipeg. There are 300 plus, Cathy. There is a thick plume of smoke right now in Southern Ontario, Manitoba, and it's headed this way tomorrow. It's from the Canadian wildfires up in the Northwest Territories.
And NOAA's RAP model, one of the models that tracks the smoke plumes, are bringing this plume down over Minnesota. There's a cold front in Northwest Minnesota right now that tends to drive air to the surface so that smoke that's been elevated gets concentrate down at the surface. And it looks like it'll get pushed right across Minnesota tomorrow from north to south, that plume.
In fact, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency forecasting condition red for the northern half of Minnesota tomorrow, probably orange for the Twin Cities, they're talking about a significant smoke event that could rival July and August of 2021. So conceivably, this might be the worst smoke event of summer for parts of Minnesota as this comes south tomorrow. Also, Cathy, I see new fires that have been erupting in parts of Montana, Idaho, Washington State, and they're belching out smoke back there.
So it looks like we're going to see many more smoke days as we go forward. By the way, it was interesting. The record was 42, air quality alert days in 2021 for Minnesota. We were at 39 as of a couple of weeks ago. So I think with this latest alert, we're up over the record for the number of days that we've had an air quality alert in Minnesota.
CATHY: Wow. I just saw some photographs earlier this morning. Yellowknife, part of the Northwest Territories in Canada, they were considering evacuating parts of Yellowknife, the town, because the smoke was so thick that the firefighting aircraft were grounded, and the pictures just looked disgusting. Oy.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.
CATHY: So sad.
PAUL HUTTNER: It's historic. As we've said, they've burned six times average the amount of forest in Canada this year and more than twice the previous record. So this is just an apocalyptic fire season up in Canada this year.
CATHY: Say, what about potentially the threat for some severe weather here today?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. So here's the deal. This front is cutting into Northwest Minnesota right now up around Hallock. There are a few showers and thunder showers up just approaching Roseau and Warroad right now. That front will move across northern Minnesota this afternoon. We're going to see storms develop North Central, Northeastern Minnesota as we go through the afternoon. That front will sweep down to the Twin Cities this evening.
Now, most of the short-range models I'm looking at, Cathy, say that the bulk of the storm development will be in Northeastern Minnesota. Maybe down along I-35 South of Duluth, Twin Cities that may happen later. And it may happen just southeast of us. Some of the models I'm seeing saying these storms could develop either as they pass or just get past the Twin Cities around 8:00 or 9:00 this evening.
So we'll watch that. Best chance for storms, north of the Twin Cities, slight risk zone from the North Shore, Iron Range, all the way South I-35 through Duluth, Twin Cities, down to about Albert Lea. So best chance, Northeastern Minnesota. We have a lesser chance for severe storms here in the Twin Cities this evening, and we'll get close to 90 before then.
CATHY: Oh. So yeah, if you like to sweat, you got some weather coming your way.
PAUL HUTTNER: Where's our weather?
CATHY: Yeah.
PAUL HUTTNER: I know you love this stuff.
CATHY: I do. It's true. I mean, it's summer. You might as well enjoy. But the weekend does look, I have to say, a little crispy.
PAUL HUTTNER: It does. So the smoke in 70s tomorrow, a little warmer Friday. We're back up into the mid 80s. It looks hot this week at mid-90s and probably right into next week. Dew points, 60s. Maybe up around 70. Cathy, the European model has us in the mid-90s right up through about next Tuesday or Wednesday. So this could be another heat wave we've already had 20 days of 90 degree plus in the Twin Cities. Our average is 13. We could be at 23, 24, 25 by the middle of next week. So we're getting our money's worth this summer.
CATHY: With about 30 seconds left what's on Climate Cast.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. That Montana lawsuit, we've been following it on Climate Cast. 16 young people between 5 and 22 sued the state for the right to a clean and healthful environment. Well, guess what, they won this week. So we'll talk with Amanda Eggert from the Montana Free Press. She's been in the courtroom the whole time. And see how they're reacting to that victory. This could have wider implications, Cathy, legally for Climate lawsuits around the country.
CATHY: All right, Mr Huttner. Thank you so much.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, C.
CATHY: That's our Chief Meteorologist, Paul Huttner.
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