Minnesota reaches 'exceptional drought' for second time ever
Thursday’s drought monitor is showing the worst drought yet this year. For the first time, parts of the state are in “exceptional drought.”
National Drought Mitigation Center
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Thursday’s drought monitor is showing the worst drought yet this year. For the first time, parts of the state are in “exceptional drought.” That is the highest level on the scale. And only the second time in drought monitor history that Minnesota has reached that level.
Since mid-August several cities across the state have enacted water restrictions, including, as of yesterday, St. Paul. Officials are asking more than 440,000 customers in 14 cities in the east metro area to cut back water where they can, including a voluntary lawn watering schedule. That's just one impact of the drought.
To explain more, State Climatologist Luigi Romolo spoke with MPR News host Cathy Wurzer.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
CATHY WURZER: Let's talk a little bit more about this deepening drought. Joining us right now is state climatologist, Luigi Romolo. Welcome back, Luigi. How are you?
LUIGI ROMOLO: Doing well, Cathy. Thank you. How are you?
CATHY WURZER: I'm great. Thank you. Well, first off, let's explain to folks what part of the states are seeing this exceptional drought? Tim Nelson outlined it a little bit there. What does exceptional drought look like?
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah. Exceptional drought is exactly what the word means, exceptional. So about as worse of a drought type condition that you can have. And right now, we have two areas of the state that are showing exceptional drought. And he mentioned it. It was in part of Freeborn County, part of Mower County, but also to the north of the metro, in Carlton County, part of Pine County, and the eastern part of Aitkin County.
CATHY WURZER: So let's talk about what led us to this point. Obviously, we have this rainfall deficit. And I know from experience and other interviews that I've done that it takes quite a long time to get out of a drought when you're in it.
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah. And so we really started seeing a shortage of precipitation, kind of starting really about mid-May. And since that time, we're seeing areas of the state. And those areas that are showing extreme and exceptional drought are short about 9 to 10 or even 12 inches below normal. And that is a significant amount when you consider what the annual precipitation is in parts of the states, anywhere from 35 to 36 inches per year of precipitation. You're already short a third of that. It's a significant amount.
CATHY WURZER: So as I mentioned, it's tough to pull out of a drought. What are the atmospheric conditions that are not coming together right now?
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah very difficult question to answer, Cathy. So our precipitation is really driven by 2 paths of low pressure systems, the first being low pressure systems that come out of the Alberta, Canada area, known as the Alberta low storm track. And they track over the Northern part of the state, although they can affect the entire state.
The second one is the Colorado storm track, which tracks mostly across the southern half of the state but does affect most of the state as well. And we just haven't seen the kind of activity that we typically see in a normal precipitation summer. Really difficult to say what's causing it.
CATHY WURZER: We're going to be talking about groundwater here in the next few minutes after you and I get done with our conversation. What's this drought doing to aquifers? Do you have any idea?
LUIGI ROMOLO: It's really difficult to say at this point. Different aquifers have different response rates. So it's really difficult for me as a climatologist to really speak to that.
CATHY WURZER: OK. I wasn't sure if you could or not. Let me ask you this. Obviously, you know that 2021 was one of the most severe drought seasons ever in Minnesota. Are we close to those levels?
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah we're rivaling the 2021 drought right now. So you mentioned that we have exceptional drought here in Minnesota as of this week. So the drought map, which is produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Lincoln, Nebraska, started in the year 2000.
There's only been two instances where we've had exceptional drought in Minnesota. The first instance was in the 2021 drought in early August. It was a much broader band across the Northwest. But this is only the second time since the inception of that map that we're seeing exceptional drought here on Minnesota.
Now have we had these kinds of drought conditions in the past before the map was created? Sure. In 1988 during the Dust Bowl era. Other droughts, for sure. But it's quite significant now that-- if you consider the drought maps been produced for 23 years now, it's only the second time that the weekly map, over however many weeks since the year 2000, that this is only the second time it's happened.
CATHY WURZER: So you mentioned the 1980s, '88. That was a heck of a drought year. And that's when the Drought Task Force was established or around about that time. And I know that next week, the Drought Task Force is going to reconvene. I know you're part of that. What's going to be discussed there?
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah. So the purpose of the Drought Task Force was really just to get the right people together to discuss what they're finding in their particular disciplines. So we talked to people from the Department of Agriculture. We talked to people from the Geological Survey on river flows. And just get a sense of how they're responding to the drought.
And by sharing all of this information collectively, it really kind of facilitates our coping capacity with this drought. So whenever the task force gets together, we really just share what everybody's doing to respond to the drought, and it really just gives us a way to share that kind of communication and put us in a better position to react.
CATHY WURZER: Does the Drought Task Force recommend to local communities to rein in water usage or to mandate water restrictions?
LUIGI ROMOLO: No. That's done by individual agencies. So the task force is made up of all these different individual agencies, but the task force itself does not do that.
CATHY WURZER: OK. Well, of course, we're getting close-- We just started meteorological fall, as you know. But we're inching closer to winter. And so if we don't recharge the soils by the time they freeze, I'm going to assume that that is not going to portend well for next spring.
LUIGI ROMOLO: Sure. So let's talk about the 2021 drought, which really started in the summer of 2020. So it really started getting dry in the summer of 2020. And as we moved into fall, it got a little drier and a little drier. And then the drought map got a little bit worse. And once we hit winter, our drought conditions pretty much lock into place until snowmelt.
And so if this doesn't improve before that, we're going to be locked into those drought conditions basically until spring. And so if we don't get a healthy snowpack like we did last year. So the snowpack we got last year really kind of took us out of the 2022 drought. But yeah, it really depends on what we get this winter and this fall to really kind of help conditions to see what it might be like starting in the spring.
CATHY WURZER: Hard to know in terms of predictions because of climate change? That seems to be a toss up sometimes.
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah. It's just so hard, Cathy, to predict precipitation more than five or six days out. And we have some of the smartest minds in atmospheric science working for NOAA that produce products like the Climate Prediction Center's precipitation and temperature outlooks. But it is so hard to do seasonal forecasts and to be able to rely on them because it's so difficult to do.
CATHY WURZER: OK. Luigi, I appreciate your time. Thank you so much.
LUIGI ROMOLO: Oh, it's my pleasure, Cathy. Thank you.
CATHY WURZER: Luigi Romolo is Minnesota's state climatologist.
LUIGI ROMOLO: Doing well, Cathy. Thank you. How are you?
CATHY WURZER: I'm great. Thank you. Well, first off, let's explain to folks what part of the states are seeing this exceptional drought? Tim Nelson outlined it a little bit there. What does exceptional drought look like?
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah. Exceptional drought is exactly what the word means, exceptional. So about as worse of a drought type condition that you can have. And right now, we have two areas of the state that are showing exceptional drought. And he mentioned it. It was in part of Freeborn County, part of Mower County, but also to the north of the metro, in Carlton County, part of Pine County, and the eastern part of Aitkin County.
CATHY WURZER: So let's talk about what led us to this point. Obviously, we have this rainfall deficit. And I know from experience and other interviews that I've done that it takes quite a long time to get out of a drought when you're in it.
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah. And so we really started seeing a shortage of precipitation, kind of starting really about mid-May. And since that time, we're seeing areas of the state. And those areas that are showing extreme and exceptional drought are short about 9 to 10 or even 12 inches below normal. And that is a significant amount when you consider what the annual precipitation is in parts of the states, anywhere from 35 to 36 inches per year of precipitation. You're already short a third of that. It's a significant amount.
CATHY WURZER: So as I mentioned, it's tough to pull out of a drought. What are the atmospheric conditions that are not coming together right now?
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah very difficult question to answer, Cathy. So our precipitation is really driven by 2 paths of low pressure systems, the first being low pressure systems that come out of the Alberta, Canada area, known as the Alberta low storm track. And they track over the Northern part of the state, although they can affect the entire state.
The second one is the Colorado storm track, which tracks mostly across the southern half of the state but does affect most of the state as well. And we just haven't seen the kind of activity that we typically see in a normal precipitation summer. Really difficult to say what's causing it.
CATHY WURZER: We're going to be talking about groundwater here in the next few minutes after you and I get done with our conversation. What's this drought doing to aquifers? Do you have any idea?
LUIGI ROMOLO: It's really difficult to say at this point. Different aquifers have different response rates. So it's really difficult for me as a climatologist to really speak to that.
CATHY WURZER: OK. I wasn't sure if you could or not. Let me ask you this. Obviously, you know that 2021 was one of the most severe drought seasons ever in Minnesota. Are we close to those levels?
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah we're rivaling the 2021 drought right now. So you mentioned that we have exceptional drought here in Minnesota as of this week. So the drought map, which is produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Lincoln, Nebraska, started in the year 2000.
There's only been two instances where we've had exceptional drought in Minnesota. The first instance was in the 2021 drought in early August. It was a much broader band across the Northwest. But this is only the second time since the inception of that map that we're seeing exceptional drought here on Minnesota.
Now have we had these kinds of drought conditions in the past before the map was created? Sure. In 1988 during the Dust Bowl era. Other droughts, for sure. But it's quite significant now that-- if you consider the drought maps been produced for 23 years now, it's only the second time that the weekly map, over however many weeks since the year 2000, that this is only the second time it's happened.
CATHY WURZER: So you mentioned the 1980s, '88. That was a heck of a drought year. And that's when the Drought Task Force was established or around about that time. And I know that next week, the Drought Task Force is going to reconvene. I know you're part of that. What's going to be discussed there?
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah. So the purpose of the Drought Task Force was really just to get the right people together to discuss what they're finding in their particular disciplines. So we talked to people from the Department of Agriculture. We talked to people from the Geological Survey on river flows. And just get a sense of how they're responding to the drought.
And by sharing all of this information collectively, it really kind of facilitates our coping capacity with this drought. So whenever the task force gets together, we really just share what everybody's doing to respond to the drought, and it really just gives us a way to share that kind of communication and put us in a better position to react.
CATHY WURZER: Does the Drought Task Force recommend to local communities to rein in water usage or to mandate water restrictions?
LUIGI ROMOLO: No. That's done by individual agencies. So the task force is made up of all these different individual agencies, but the task force itself does not do that.
CATHY WURZER: OK. Well, of course, we're getting close-- We just started meteorological fall, as you know. But we're inching closer to winter. And so if we don't recharge the soils by the time they freeze, I'm going to assume that that is not going to portend well for next spring.
LUIGI ROMOLO: Sure. So let's talk about the 2021 drought, which really started in the summer of 2020. So it really started getting dry in the summer of 2020. And as we moved into fall, it got a little drier and a little drier. And then the drought map got a little bit worse. And once we hit winter, our drought conditions pretty much lock into place until snowmelt.
And so if this doesn't improve before that, we're going to be locked into those drought conditions basically until spring. And so if we don't get a healthy snowpack like we did last year. So the snowpack we got last year really kind of took us out of the 2022 drought. But yeah, it really depends on what we get this winter and this fall to really kind of help conditions to see what it might be like starting in the spring.
CATHY WURZER: Hard to know in terms of predictions because of climate change? That seems to be a toss up sometimes.
LUIGI ROMOLO: Yeah. It's just so hard, Cathy, to predict precipitation more than five or six days out. And we have some of the smartest minds in atmospheric science working for NOAA that produce products like the Climate Prediction Center's precipitation and temperature outlooks. But it is so hard to do seasonal forecasts and to be able to rely on them because it's so difficult to do.
CATHY WURZER: OK. Luigi, I appreciate your time. Thank you so much.
LUIGI ROMOLO: Oh, it's my pleasure, Cathy. Thank you.
CATHY WURZER: Luigi Romolo is Minnesota's state climatologist.
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