The impact of our wet weather pattern

NINA MOINI: Well, this week, much of the state has been rattled by numerous thunderstorms. And it looks like we may not be done just yet. MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner is here to talk about where all of that rain has gotten us so far. Thanks for being here, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, it's my pleasure, Nina. And what a day, what a week of another watching this ongoing extreme weather experiment we call Minnesota.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, I've had a lot of being startled awake in the middle of the night by thunder, which I don't love, and neither does my dog. [LAUGHS] But it feels like we've had a lot of rain the past few weeks. So just how much have we had?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, and meteorologists don't get a lot of sleep either with these nighttime thunderstorms.

NINA MOINI: You've been busy, yeah.

PAUL HUTTNER: I can promise you that. Look, this has just been a remarkable recovery from drought. Rewind to last September 26, 100% of Minnesota was in drought or abnormally dry. There were big pockets of extreme drought across Minnesota.

You fast forward to this week, we've pretty much wiped out the drought in Minnesota. In the last week, we've had 2 to 5 inches of rain in much of central and southern Minnesota. I mean, a pretty big footprint from around St. Cloud down through the Twin Cities, much of southwest Minnesota and southern Minnesota. We've had 5 to 10 inches in the past month, even.

NINA MOINI: Wow.

PAUL HUTTNER: So that's the sixth wettest April and May period on record. And it just keeps coming. Last night, Duluth picked up another 1.6 inches of rain, Hoyt Lakes, 2.6, Cloquet, about 2.2. Down around the Rochester area, southeast Minnesota, another inch and a half or so. Twin Cities, around an inch, above an inch in many spots.

And this week's crop report is interesting because it came out on Monday, but even then, 40% of Minnesota's top soil moisture was rated as surplus, meaning too much water. I know here in Carver County, there's standing water in some of the fields. Those little cute corn shoots that are coming up that are only about a couple inches high, some of those are seeing too much water. And that was before this week's 2 to 5 inches of rain.

The other impact we're seeing is flood warnings of rivers and creeks have been rising quickly. The Cannon River in Northfield has had a flood warning this week, the Crow River, west of the Twin Cities. The Minnesota River, a lot of that water is running into the Minnesota watershed. Carver, Scott, Sibley Counties all the way into southwest Minnesota. So that's some of the impacts we've been seeing from this persistent heavy rain.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, and I wonder at what point that turns into more serious issues. Are we going to keep seeing this wet weather? What does it look like here as summer's kicking off?

PAUL HUTTNER: It is. And it does look like we're seeing a drier pattern emerging. We have more scattered showers and thunderstorms today across Minnesota. I can get to that in the forecast. But the next 10 days, the outlooks are drying out a bit, and maybe even through late June.

And so we're beginning to wonder. We've had three years with wet springs, and then we've gone into flash drought in the summer, where the precip has just shut off. It's like somebody flipped the switch. Will that happen again? That's the big question. Will we see that for a fourth straight year?

My hunch and the law of averages say probably not, that this could be a summer where we at least get some timely rains through later June and July. But we've had that pattern. So we'll have to keep an eye on it here for the next couple of months.

NINA MOINI: All right. And you did mention the forecast for the rest of the week, weekend. What are you forecasting?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so windy again today. Wind advisory, southwest Minnesota, Red River Valley, all of the Dakotas, winds gusting over 45 miles an hour. We're already gusting over 30 here in the Twin Cities. There are some scattered showers. Northern Minnesota, International Falls down to the Iron Range, Grand Rapids, down to the Brainerd Lakes area. Also in southwest Minnesota, New Ulm, Redwood Falls, moving into the Mankato area.

Nina, there's enough instability in the atmosphere this afternoon that we could have one or two isolated severe storms with damaging wind potential. It doesn't look widespread, just something we'll have to keep an eye out for. There could be a warning or two later today. Then that moves out of here.

We clear tonight, 57. Mostly sunny, still breezy tomorrow, 67. And it looks pretty nice Friday into Saturday and the weekend, mostly sunny to partly cloudy, highs in the mid 70s, Friday and Saturday. About 70 Sunday, a little cooler, a lot of 60s in northern Minnesota. But overall, the weather quieting down in a pretty nice weather pattern as we move toward the weekend.

NINA MOINI: And you know I always love to ask you about summertime whenever we get the chance to chat, because I'm curious. We just had these kind of hot and stuffy days. Now it was a little bit cooler today. What is your sense for what summer 2024 is looking like temperature wise?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we're not warming up fast this year, which is interesting. We still have not hit 90 degrees in the Twin Cities. The average is June 2, so about this week. And in the next week to 10 days, maybe two weeks, I see a lot of 70s, though. So it doesn't look like we're going to just dip into the 90s.

Overall, the pattern seems to favor warmer than normal temperatures this summer. And of course, we're seeing a big heat wave now building in the Southwest. They're going to be 100, 110, 120, parts of Arizona, Southern California. That has a tendency to shift in our direction later in the summer. So we'll see how intense that heat is once it gets here, probably in the next month or so.

NINA MOINI: All right, and before I let you go, I wanted to ask what's on Climate Cast this week.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so there's a new e-bike rebate program in Minnesota, and it looks like it's really starting up this week. It's $2 million a year. It's for 2024 and 2025. So we talked with somebody with the Minnesota Department of Finance, and we'll talk about how you can get in on that if you're looking for a new e-bike. That's on Climate Cast, of course, tomorrow afternoon, Thursdays on All Things Considered.

NINA MOINI: Paul, I know you're really busy. I appreciate you stopping by.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, it's my pleasure. No place I'd rather be. Thanks, Nina.

NINA MOINI: Aw, thanks. That was MPR's chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner.