How the Israel-Hamas war is shaping the Omar-Samuels primary race

[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: Minnesota's primary election will take place tomorrow. Narrowing the field of candidates will appear on ballots in November's general election. There are several contested primaries that will be closely watched this week. There's a primary to see which candidate Royce White or Joe Frazier will run against DFL incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar. In the seventh congressional district, Incumbent Republican Michelle Fischbach faces a challenge from businessman Steve Boyd, who thinks Fischbach isn't conservative enough.

In the fifth congressional district, which is in Minneapolis, DFL Representative Ilhan Omar faces a rematch from former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels. Two years ago, Omar beat Samuels by just two percentage points. Experts say that whoever wins the DFL primary will likely win the seat in November. Here to talk about the tight race is MPR senior politics reporter, Clay Masters. Hey, Clay.

CLAY MASTERS: Good afternoon.

CATHY WURZER: Well, this is not the first time these two candidates have faced each other. And as I mentioned, Representative Omar squeaked by the last time to win.

CLAY MASTERS: Yeah, while Omar won two years ago, Cathy, the outcome surprised a lot of political watchers in Minnesota and really across the country. The seat really wasn't on a lot of people's radar in 2022. Omar was first elected in 2018, of course, as part of the progressive group dubbed the squad, alongside Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, and Ayana Pressley of Massachusetts.

So Omar goes into these primaries with some pretty high name ID in the state and is, of course, a national figure. But Don Samuels, a former Minneapolis City councilman, came just two percentage points from beating Omar in 2022. And because of the voter registration numbers, Democrats are highly favored to win in Minnesota's fifth, so that makes the primary for the DFL really the thing to watch in this congressional district.

CATHY WURZER: Right. So as you mentioned, Omar is a member of the squad. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush lost their Democratic primaries earlier this year. Can you explain that shift? And I wonder if Omar has concerns.

CLAY MASTERS: Yeah. For those two seats that you mentioned, it has a lot to do with the outside money coming into their primaries as a result of comments made about what's happening in the Middle East. There's been a lot of focus on comments here that Representative Ilhan Omar has made about the war between Israel and Hamas and Gaza.

Especially early on from Don Samuels in this race, he points out that she's divisive and shouldn't alienate people in her district. That was something that came up during the convention where Omar won the endorsement of the DFL. You might remember back in April, Representative Omar referred to some Jewish students as pro-genocide during a visit to Columbia University.

There was an effort from a Nebraska Republican Congressman to censure her for those comments. So we've seen a lot of money from APAC, that's the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel lobbying group, spend a lot of money on representatives Bowman and Bush's opponents.

Wesley Bell in Missouri, for example, who defeated Cori Bush just last week, ran as a progressive. But he saw a boosting of more than $8 million from AIPAC, and that outside money really transformed the race into one of the most expensive house primaries in history. You're really not seeing that kind of money injection from APAC into Samuel's campaign, but Omar is taking the primary race very seriously.

As we've said, Samuel is nearly won two years ago, and that was really by overperforming in the suburbs of CD5. I was out a couple of weeks ago to observe some door knocking in Fridley. Omar was there speaking with her volunteers before they hit a bunch of doors. She's also doing a lot in the district over the last few months to remind voters of some of the Congressional earmarks, some of the money that she's brought home to her district.

CATHY WURZER: So tell folks, what are the main differences between these two DFLers.

CLAY MASTERS: Yeah, I mean, you really wouldn't gather much of a difference if you go listen to their stump speeches. They talk a lot about being in support of abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, other progressive issues. Don't hear a lot of big differences on the stump. That is, until they start talking about their opponent, right. Representative Omar calls Samuels, a Trojan Horse for Republicans, mentioning GOP donors he took money from during his unsuccessful campaign for mayor of Minneapolis about a decade ago.

Independent US Senator Bernie Sanders was here a week ago, rallying at Omar's Alma Mater, Edison High School in Minneapolis, alongside Minnesota Senator Tina Smith, who has endorsed Omar. And that's where Omar accused Samuels of being bad for public schools. And for Samuels, he likes to point out Omar voted no on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and he just really hits home this call of her being divisive and that she's not representing all of her constituents. He says she is in it for herself.

I remember the last time there was a big influx of money. Outside groups spent big 11th hour to boost Don Samuels and Ilhan Omar had just, what was it, a 24-100 vote win over him, the last time? So what do the fundraising efforts look like for both candidates?

CATHY WURZER: There's certainly more interest in this race right now because of what we've seen in both New York and Missouri. But Omar is far and away outraising Samuels. As I mentioned her campaign is taking this primary seriously. Omar's re-election campaign isn't holding back on spending in this year's primary and has been airing TV ads for months. She has the endorsement of other high ranking Democrats in the state.

Samuels told me last week, though, that he's seen a big surge in volunteers this time around. And I also think it's noteworthy just to point out the yard signs that Samuels has started putting out from his campaign. They say he's a Democrat on it and that it's Ilhan versus Don. He says his campaign has had to just remind people that there's even a primary going on.

And I do want to note that any time there's talk about a primary, folks will point out that Minnesota has open primaries, meaning any registered voter may participate in any party's primary. One of the Republican US Senate candidates on tomorrow's ballot, Royce White, has encouraged Republicans in Representative Omar's district to vote in the Democratic primary. For Samuels, you're hearing some buzz on this. But it would take a lot of people to make that shift. And of course, then they would not be able to vote in their Republican primary.

CATHY WURZER: That's right. So what do polls show. Any intel in terms of who might win? Who's the favorite?

CLAY MASTERS: Yeah, I think because of how much more serious Representative Ilhan Omar is taking this primary as opposed to two years ago, her campaign is feeling a little more comfortable, maybe. She shored up the DFL endorsement in the first round of balloting back in May. But that being said, it was really close two years ago, and Samuels campaign is working hard to drum up support and they're hoping to pull off an upset.

CATHY WURZER: What do we think about turnout? What do experts, what do they think?

CLAY MASTERS: Yeah, I mean, it always comes down to turnout, right. If history is any guide, though, we do not expect a surge in votes. Turnout has been pretty dismal in recent primaries, barely cracking 20% of eligible voters in recent years, sometimes struggling to get out of single digits over the past decade or so. There's no really big statewide competitive primary. We should expect overall turnout to be low, I think.

But there has been a lot of money and interest, as we're saying, in CD5. So there could be more turnout there. And of course, early voting already underway. Polls are open from 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM tomorrow. You can check out mprnews.org to find your polling place, as well as this comprehensive voter guide of all kinds of primary races happening.

CATHY WURZER: Not just in CD5, but the Senate all the way down to local races too, yeah.

CLAY MASTERS: Yeah. it's all there. A lot of work going into that voter guide.

CATHY WURZER: No kidding. Well, Clay, thank you for taking the time.

CLAY MASTERS: You're welcome. Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That's MPR News senior politics reporter Clay Masters. By the way, Of course, we've said the primary day in Minnesota is tomorrow. We have this election guide, and it's a really fast way to start learning about some of the candidates. The election guide is also available in English, Spanish, Hmong, and Somali. You can find it at mprnews.org/election.