Breaking down new Minnesota poll results

[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: I mentioned that new poll that's out this morning. MPR News, KARE 11. The Minnesota Star Tribune show a close race for president in Minnesota, with democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading republican nominee Donald Trump by about five percentage points. Mark Zdechlik breaks down the results for us.

MARK ZDECHLIK: The survey of 800 likely voters for the latest Minnesota poll was conducted last week. It put Kamala Harris up 48.4% to 43.3% over Donald Trump. It means the race in Minnesota is statistically close, given the poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. 44-year-old Christine Burnam, who lives in Owatonna, supports Harris, the current vice president. Burnam is delighted Harris is running for president and has Minnesota governor Tim Walz at her side.

CHRISTINE BURNAM: Oh, for so many reasons. I don't even know how much time you have. I have three daughters. I believe in reproductive rights. I believe we are still suffering under the tax code that Donald Trump wrote many moons ago. I believe in democracy.

MARK ZDECHLIK: Don McCormick, who lives in the St. Croix river community of Lakeland, says he's voting for former president Trump. He says he does not trust Harris.

DON MCCORMICK: With all her things she's saying that she's going to do for the middle class, I don't believe it.

MARK ZDECHLIK: Nor is McCormick happy with Walz, citing his handling of the state's finances as governor, when Minnesota was running up massive surpluses.

DON MCCORMICK: You know, money saved up, it was all gone in a month or two. I mean, it just-- to me, I think he just wasted it.

MARK ZDECHLIK: The poll took voters' temperature on issues prominent in the campaign-- the economy, access to abortion, immigration, and threats to democracy. More than half of respondents rated the shape of the economy as excellent, good, or fair, with 41% saying it's poor. Almost half said illegal immigration was a very serious problem. More voters think Trump is better equipped to handle both of those issues.

Harris had the upper hand on who voters trust on issues of abortion and the nation's democracy. Respondents were closely split on whether abortion law should be a federal matter or left to each state. More than two thirds are worried about the health of democracy. Minnesota isn't among the states being most contested in the 2024 presidential race. In late July, Trump rallied thousands of supporters at a hockey arena in St. Cloud. He predicted he would win Minnesota, which has not broken for a republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972.

DONALD TRUMP: If you people all go and vote, now, look-- there's no way we lose it.

MARK ZDECHLIK: Harris hasn't been here since grabbing her party's nomination in August, but Walz has been home here and there since his VP nod, including an abbreviated visit to the state fair.

TIM WALZ: Morning, everybody.

[CHEERING]

Fast.

MARK ZDECHLIK: While the head to head margin is similar to a Minnesota poll done in June before Biden's exit, the level of passion among Democrats has changed.

BRAD COKER: There's been a significant increase in enthusiasm among Democratic voters.

MARK ZDECHLIK: That's Brad Coker, the president of Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, which conducted the poll. In June, the poll found Republicans were twice as enthusiastic about Trump than Democrats were about Biden, a roughly 60/30 split.

BRAD COKER: That's essentially disappeared. Those very enthusiastically supporting Trump and those very enthusiastically supporting Harris are almost identical numbers now. That's good news for the Democrats.

MARK ZDECHLIK: That enthusiasm means more campaign volunteers. Democrat Dennis Guillaume was among dozens who gathered in Wayzata on a recent Saturday afternoon to door-knock for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.

DENNIS GUILLAUME: I'm ecstatic. I almost can't find the words. I'm so excited when the turn that things took.

MARK ZDECHLIK: While the poll shows most Minnesotans have made up their mind about the presidential race, about 8% say they don't support either Trump or Harris, or haven't made up their minds. They'll likely decide the November election. I'm Mark Zdechlik, MPR News.

CATHY WURZER: We're going to drill down more on some of those poll results, so Mark Zdechlik is on the line. Hey, thanks for taking the time.

MARK ZDECHLIK: Good afternoon, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: I know some people might be a little confused when you start talking about a five point lead being described as neck and neck. Can you explain that a little bit?

MARK ZDECHLIK: Absolutely, Cathy. A reminder, Cathy, that polls are just a snapshot, and not meant to be predictive in any way. It's kind of where the race stands at the time they're conducted. They rely on a scientific sample of voters. And each poll comes with what's called a margin of sampling error. The one here is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. That means that each candidate's standing could be that much higher or lower than what these baseline figures show.

If you take the poll's outer bounds, Trump could conceivably be as high as 47%, but also could be as low as 40%. Likewise, Harris could be as high as 51%, but also as low as 45%. As you know, Cathy, Trump has been the Republican nominee twice before. In both 2016 and 2020, he won 45% of the vote in Minnesota. The Democratic nominee did better in each, with Joe Biden topping 52% just four years ago.

CATHY WURZER: So let's talk about the sampling error. It goes up the more you kind of carve up the numbers, right?

MARK ZDECHLIK: That's right. So while we can say how voters living in different regions or different ages kind of come down on the race, we can't read too much in that because the reliability just decreases so much. I will say, though, that our poll is consistent with others. It shows a big gender gap. Kamala Harris is performing far better than Trump among women and Trump has a clear advantage among men.

CATHY WURZER: So what's the favorability rating of each?

MARK ZDECHLIK: Former president Trump and Vice President Harris are essentially tied on the favorability question. Trump came in at 46%, Harris at 47% of voters who view her in a positive light. Unfavorability options or opinions race, Cathy, are also very, very similar. 53% view Trump unfavorably. About 51% feel that way about Harris. None of that's really surprising, Cathy. It really just points to the fact that Americans, and in this case, Minnesotans were just dug in, and politically were. We--

CATHY WURZER: Yeah. I was going through the tabs earlier this morning and see that former president Trump is doing well in greater Minnesota. Kamala Harris, doing pretty well in the twin cities area, too. Any indication, Mark Zdechlik, that Minnesota could creep onto the list of states that might get more attention in the race?

MARK ZDECHLIK: It's possible, but thus far, most of the attention has been in states that are considered to be more politically critical than Minnesota. President Trump was here in late July. Harris has not been here since she became the Democratic nominee. The campaigns are spending money here, but they're not chasing each other on the ground in this state like they are in some other states. And it's always important when we talk about these polls and the races in general, that Cathy, Minnesota hasn't broken for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon, and that was in 1972.

CATHY WURZER: Right. So I also know we polled on the U.S Senate race. Amy Klobuchar looks to be in a pretty decent position at this point.

MARK ZDECHLIK: She's in a very commanding position. Our poll has her leading her Republican challenger, Royce White, by a little more than 10 percentage points. Klobuchar has been on a statewide ballot three times before, so we can look at her performances in those previous races, her victory margins. And those have ranged from 20 percentage points to 34 percentage points.

And let's not forget, too, that Klobuchar has a huge financial advantage over Royce White-- $6.5 million campaign cash on hand for Klobuchar into July, compared with White's just 55,000. Klobuchar is airing TV ads and has a lot of staffers and volunteers out there to help her make her case to voters, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: So the pollsters are out in the field last week, as you mentioned, Mark. What else did they ask? What else might we have information on coming up here in the next few days?

MARK ZDECHLIK: We'll have stuff all week. Tomorrow, we'll have a look at Governor Tim Walz and his standing in Minnesota, as well as that of Ohio Senator JD Vance, the vice presidential nominee of Republicans. And then, Cathy, later in the week, we'll look at how Minnesota voters are feeling about just the way the election itself is conducted. Listen for reports on our air throughout the week and online at mprnews.org.

CATHY WURZER: All right. Thank you, Mark Zdechlik.

MARK ZDECHLIK: You're welcome.

CATHY WURZER: That is MPR News politics correspondent Mark Zdechlik.