An update on fall color, plus the latest on Hurricane Helene

CATHY WURZER: There really, if you think about it, has been nothing to complain about with this week's weather. It's been sunny, a little unseasonably warm, but nice. Is it going to last? Joining us right now with a look at the forecast is MPR's Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey, how are you?

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, I'm great. Good to talk with you. And we've got some breaking fall color news today.

CATHY WURZER: What? Tell me about it.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, a little sliver near North Shore, Two Harbors, Silver Bay up on the hills, 50% to 75% color. That's just today in today's Minnesota DNR Fall Color Update. So it's starting to turn up on the hill, according to the DNR. But most of northern Minnesota is still about 25% to 50%, Cathy, so still just shades of hues up there starting to go. Twin Cities, we're still at 0% to 10%. Most of the Twin Cities is still green with some splashes of color. And it looks like the peak up in Northern Minnesota could be next week. Twin Cities could be mid to late October.

And the reason, we're basically like a hobbit's second breakfast, we're getting a second August here. It's warm and dry, in fact, the warmest and driest September on record. We're about to close the books on that, Twin Cities, 5.5 degrees warmer than normal this month, International Falls, 7 degrees warmer than normal, and only 6 hundredths of an inch of precip, so the driest on record as well. That's pushing that fall color peak later.

CATHY WURZER: Wow. Say, do you think this warmer air is going to last?

PAUL HUTTNER: It's going to last right for the rest of this week and through the weekend for sure, mostly sunny, unseasonably warm, 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal, Kathy. By the way, our normal high is now 69. We've dropped below that 70 mark. But we're 74 now, headed for 78 today in the Twin Cities. I see lots of 70s all across Minnesota on the map. And we'll head for the 80s tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, low to even mid 80s by Saturday. It's going to be very pleasant, very warm. Most Minnesotans I'm hearing are OK with that. But of course, I always get a few folks who weigh in on the side of, hey, this is late September. It should be cooler out there. But boy, if you like this sunshine and warm weather, it's almost Wurzer weather right into the weekend.

CATHY WURZER: It kind of is, yeah, as a matter of fact. I'm a little worried about the lack of rain, I got to be honest with you.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, and some of the parts of Southwest Minnesota, especially Southern Minnesota, trending into drought. Also Northern Minnesota, abnormally dry, and we're losing soil moisture quickly. So tomorrow's drought monitor update, I expect those areas to expand a little. And I don't see any big rain in the forecast right now. There is a cold front coming through late next Monday after another day in the 70s, it looks like. And maybe a couple of days of highs in the 50s and 60s might bring some rain to northern Minnesota, north of the twin cities. But, Kathy, it looks like we could warm up again late next week as we head into late October. Some of the models are saying 80s again.

CATHY WURZER: Really? Oh my gosh.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah.

CATHY WURZER: So I'm wondering, again, given kind of the droughty conditions, how serious is that going into winter. Don't you need to recharge the soils going into winter?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, you're absolutely right. And I still have hope for that because the big time there is October, November before the ground freezes, when we get these fall mid-latitude cyclones that usually dump widespread significant rain. So if we get two, three, four of those big lows that move up and dump rain for a day or 36 hours, we could recharge those soils again. So that's to be determined here. But we're going to have to see that pattern shift as we head into October and November.

CATHY WURZER: Say, might we get any moisture, maybe, maybe, from hurricane Helene, or is that just too far south?

PAUL HUTTNER: No, it looked like it might sneak up into Illinois and Iowa and maybe Minnesota. But the latest models are kind of stalling at south and then moving it off to the east. Cathy, as we just heard, it's an 80-mile-an-hour Category 1 hurricane. It's around Cancun. I've seen video of the hotels there with water pouring in, 500 miles southwest of Tampa. Here's the thing, the sea surface temperatures, the ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are 85 to 88 degrees. That is rocket fuel for this thing.

It's got that shrimpy look on the satellite, like a shrimp, and feeding moisture in through the tail of the shrimp. When we see that as meteorologists, we say that is a well-organized storm. And the forecast hurricane center saying Category 3, major hurricane by tomorrow morning with 125 mile an hour winds. But many of the models, or a few of the models, anyway, are saying maybe Cat 4 or Cat 5 by the time it hits the big bend sometime Thursday night.

This is a large storm, Cathy. Folks in Western Florida, like Tampa, are glad that the eyewall will pass offshore, but it's going to push a lot of surge. They're talking 5 to 8 feet, even into the Tampa Bay area. So this will have impacts on the west coast of Florida, south of the big bend.

CATHY WURZER: Wow. Say, what do you have on Climate Cast?

PAUL HUTTNER: Well, you know Heidi Roop from the University of Minnesota, a climate expert there. We're going to check in with her on Minnesota's climate. What are the biggest changes we're seeing lately? And also a little bit about the loons-- there are signs that if climate change continues in Minnesota on our current trend, it could start affecting loon habitat. So we'll talk about that tomorrow, Climate Cast, All Things Considered, tomorrow afternoon.

CATHY WURZER: We will indeed. Thank you so much. Have a great day.

PAUL HUTTNER: You, too. Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That's our Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, you can always listen to Mr. Huttner Monday through Friday, All Things Considered, 3:00 until 6:00 with my colleague, Tom Crann.