Snow predicted for northern, central Minnesota

NINA MOINI: Well, this winter's below average statewide snowfall might just be taking a turn this week. Northern Minnesota could see significant snowfall today, and the Twin Cities will get in on the action, too. It's good news for people who like to sled or skiers out there. Not always the best news for people in traffic.

MPR's Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner is back with a snow update and a forecast for the rest of the week. Thanks for being here, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, my pleasure, Nina. The weather maps finally looking a little more active these days.

NINA MOINI: Yeah. So some snow in the forecast today. I'm not seeing anything as I look out the window here in Saint Paul, but what are you tracking?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's still developing in west central Minnesota, parts of northern Minnesota. And, Nina, we're living on the edge here again in the Twin Cities with this one. The main body of the storm will favor central and northern Minnesota. It'll be kind of a 218 area code storm up north.

And it looks like the snow chances for the Twin Cities will develop later this afternoon and through tonight. We'll pick up less than an inch in the Twin Cities, but it'll be a pretty productive system for parts of central and northern Minnesota. Widespread 3 to 6 inches across much of northern Minnesota, including Bemidji, over to the Iron Range, the North Shore.

Might even see some six inch plus totals along the Lake Shore up around Grand Marais, a little lake enhancement there. So this will be a pretty productive storm for northern Minnesota, but not much in the Twin Cities. And sorry, Rochester and I-90, Nina, I've been getting emails, where is our snow down here? So you'll have to wait till Saturday, it looks like.

NINA MOINI: Oh, OK. What about the rest of the week? Temperature-wise, it's been pretty cold. It's been pretty cloudy.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we're going to moderate a bit. We're up to 23 later this afternoon in the Twin Cities. About that again tomorrow. High of around 20 on Friday. And we'll see some sun tomorrow and again on Friday. So that certainly perks people up, I think, a little bit here as we go through the dead of winter in Minnesota.

NINA MOINI: Yeah. Some of the days when the sun does come out, Paul, it's just so nice. And I'm just curious why it's sunnier in winter when it's colder.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, because when it's warmer in winter, when it's mild, it's usually a Pacific air mass. So that has more moisture with it. We tend to get more clouds on those days. If we get a proper arctic air mass, like we had a few weeks ago, that air is super dry, some of the driest air on the planet, so we don't have a lot of clouds.

We get a lot of sunshine. So it's kind of a winter paradox. It's a trade off. It's sunnier when it's colder. It's usually cloudier when it's a little warmer in Minnesota.

NINA MOINI: All right. And I know you mentioned Saturday a possibility for some snow. What's going on there?

PAUL HUTTNER: Well, this could be a good one. I just looked at the latest model runs coming in again. And they've been pretty consistent now for three or four days that a potentially major winter storm will cross the state on Saturday. It looks like a stronger system that's tracking further south.

So that could include the Twin Cities, maybe even down to the I-90 corridor. Models are saying snow will start early Saturday and it'll snow most of the day, and it could be heavy at times. Widespread accumulations from Brainerd, Duluth, all the way down through the Twin Cities, maybe down as far south as the I-90 corridor.

And most of the models, it's still early, but they're saying at least 3 to 6 inches, maybe 4 to 8 plus in the sweet spot, which could include the Twin Cities. Maybe some local 10 inch totals, Nina. It's still early, but this looks like a productive system.

So we could get a real nice coating of winter white around here, it looks like, on Saturday. And hey, it's falling on a Saturday, so that's usually good news for commuters.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, absolutely. What about temperatures next week? It feels like it's going to be pretty cold, even arctic.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we are not done with winter just yet in Minnesota. The calendar still says February, even though we had that warm up recently. The jet stream is going to buckle, and it's going to shove this air that's up over the Arctic Circle down into Minnesota again next week.

Lows, probably 20s and 30s below again in Northern Minnesota. Forecasting teens below in the Twin Cities. A couple models saying we could challenge that 19 below zero that we had back on January 21st. That's the coldest temperature in the Twin Cities so far this winter. We'll see if it gets that cold, but next week definitely looks arctic, Nina.

NINA MOINI: All right. And give us a preview of what's on Climate Cast this week, if you would.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we know that our winters overall are getting warmer in Minnesota, and that's producing a lot less lake ice. A lot of lakes have lost 2 to 4 weeks of ice on average, and that's been affecting our ice fishing seasons and trends. It's also a more sketchy, the ice, with these warmed up winters. So we'll talk about that and the trends that we're seeing in lake ice across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest tomorrow on Climate Cast.

NINA MOINI: Awesome. Thanks so much for being here, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Nina.

NINA MOINI: That was NPR News Chief Meteorologist, Paul Huttner.