Straw poll could pave way for top GOP choices

Minnesota Republican Party activists could help thin the field of candidates running for governor in 2010 when they gather for a state convention later this week.

There are currently nine declared GOP candidates, and party delegates will select their preferences from the crowded field in a straw poll scheduled Saturday in St. Paul.

Most Minnesota voters aren't thinking much about an election that's still 14 months away, but the candidates running for governor are thinking about 2010 every day. Republican gubernatorial hopefuls have been traveling throughout the state courting convention delegates, issuing news releases and hoping they make a good showing in Saturday's straw poll.

Former state auditor Pat Anderson of Dellwood said thinks the straw poll result will be a make or break moment for GOP candidates.

"There are nine of us, and we can't continue to go on with nine," Anderson said. "I think if you're not in the top three or four you really have to question whether you want to be in this race, especially if you're holding a different elected office and you need to think about running for re-election to that office. In my case, if I'm not in the top three, I'm out."

Anderson is the only Republican who admits a poor showing in the straw poll would end her campaign, but she's also confident that won't happen. State Rep. Marty Seifert of Marshall is also putting a lot of weight on the GOP straw poll. Seifert said the results could cut the field by half.

"I think it's a fairly good indicator being that most Republican conventions are 70 to 75 percent the same delegates from year to year," Seifert said. "So, I think it's going to be a pretty clear indication of probably who the top three people are at least. I think it is a winnowing process."

Other candidates aren't so sure. State Rep. Tom Emmer of Delano, who entered the race in July, said the straw poll is probably more important for some candidates than others.

"I think if you're not in the top three or four you really have to question whether you want to be in this race."

"I think October 3, for our candidacy, is going to be a measuring point of how much ground have we covered in just three short months, Emmer said. "That will give us an idea of how much ground we need to cover between that point and the endorsing convention. I think for other candidates, frankly if they've been doing it a lot longer than that, perhaps this is a much bigger issue for them."

Former state Rep. Bill Haas of Champlin also sees the straw poll as a measuring point and nothing more. Haas said the results won't change his commitment, and he doubts it will narrow the field.

"Because if they're thinking along the lines I'm looking at, as a benchmark to say, OK now here's what we've got to do to get going or change our plans or our strategy, I think most people stay in," Haas said. "But that's a decision of each candidate, you know, how much time they want to spend. But I'm in it for the long run. I'm in it to get to the endorsing convention, and my goal is to win it."

State Rep. Paul Kohls of Victoria has a similar view.

"As long as I continue to get support from donors and delegates for my message of limited government and fiscal conservatism, I'm in the race," Kohls said. "I'm excited to be in the race."

The results of the GOP straw poll might convince some candidates to drop out, but they could also convince others to enter the race. Delegates will list their favorite candidate as well as their next favorite. State Republican Party Chairman Tony Sutton said the poll is aimed at giving a boost to all of the potential candidates.

"I really think that honestly, with a first and second choice on the ballot, I think just about every candidate who's running will come out of there with some kind of story to tell, which is frankly what I want," Sutton said. "I want to keep a multiplicity of candidates running. I want there to be a vigorous, strong endorsing contest. I think competition will cause the cream to rise to the surface."

The GOP candidates for governor will get to make their pitch to delegates during a pre-convention forum on Friday night.

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