Census expert: Minnesota 'on the bubble' for losing seat

The president of a Washington D.C.-based firm making predictions about which states will lose or gain congressional seats as a result of the 2010 census says Minnesota is "on the bubble" for losing one if its eight U.S. House seats.

The U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday will reveal which states will gain or lose congressional seats as a result of the 2010 census.

Because Minnesota has been growing at a slower pace than some other states, it's possible it could be among the states that lose a seat in the U.S. House.

"We think it might keep it, but it's going to be real, real close," Kimball Brace, president of Washington D.C.-based Election Data Services, told MPR's Morning Edition on Tuesday.

He said as few as 15,000 people will determine whether Minnesota will be able to keep its congressional seats.

Brace, whose firm projects apportionment of congressional seats, said states in the south will generally gain seats while states in the Midwest and Northeast will lose seats. That's been the trend since World War II, he said.

"People have been leaving the coldness," Brace said. "We're just seeing the latest bump in the road."

Brace said one other factor that could hurt Minnesota is the military and overseas count, which gives an advantage to the states where members of the military are based.

The population counts for each state will be released at 10 a.m.

(MPR's Cathy Wurzer contributed to this report.)