Tracking rain moving north; Siberian snow cover key to winter forecast?

Into each life some rain must fall. This time it's our turn.

Here's the latest Twin Cities radar loop.

The timing on this rain is pretty good. I hate to think how interesting the world would be if we had the ability to control the timing of rain and snow. All rain on Wednesdays and sunny weekends?

Works for me.

Dopplers are lighting up today across the Midwest as a big stretched out storm system brings rain from Lake Superior all the way to Galveston Bay, Texas, and the Gulf Coast.

Some pretty good showers and thunderstorms have been glowing on Dopplers in Iowa and Nebraska and moving northeast. Here's a look at the waves of rain heading northeast toward Minnesota from the Omaha, Neb., Doppler.

The storm will lose some punch as they drive into colder air over Minnesota, but look for rain to increase from the southwest, especially this afternoon and tonight.

Southern soaking

Rainfall totals still look heaviest south and east of Minnesota. The storm track has shifted just a bit to the east in the latest forecast model runs. That that may mean slightly lower rainfall totals generally between a quarter inch and a half inch for Minnesota.

Here's a look at how the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration lays out the rainfall totals over the next few days.

The incoming storm system tracks toward Minnesota by tonight, bringing rain and milder temps in the 50s along with.

More 'fall' than winter?

Our overall weather pattern looks cool -- but not wintry -- the next week or so. Right now, temps appear to want to stay near average and mostly above freezing and a few days in the low 50s into next Tuesday. No hints of any big snow on the horizon just yet in the European or U.S. forecast models.

Could we be easing into winter this year?

Here's NOAA's Global Forecast System solution from Weatherspark.

Winter outlook: Cloudy crystal ball

A slough of winter weather outlooks is on the web these days. I've literally seen everything from "Snowmageddon" to a mild winter predicted for the Upper Midwest. All of these outlooks should come with a disclaimer, if not a warning label. You should have to sign a waiver before reading.

Admittedly, the crystal ball is murkier than usual this winter. There are few clear signals as to which direction the trends are headed.

One emerging indicator is the over abundance of snow in Siberia so far this fall, which has has run above average. Snow cover in Siberia reached 157 percent of average in September, according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab.

Studies have shown that extensive Siberian snow cover in fall can drive the Arctic Oscillation into the negative phase. A negative Arctic Oscillation favors cold outbreaks from the polar regions diving down into the eastern half of the U.S.

Does the extensive fall Siberian snow mean a colder winter for Minnesota and the east coast?

Here's an interesting piece from Bloomberg.

The weather half a world from Central Park can set off atmospheric events that result in icy air descending from the North Pole in December and January, driving U.S. temperatures down and natural gas and heating oil use up, according to Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmosphere & Environmental Research in Lexington, Massachusetts.

“It’s the best winter predictor that we have,” Cohen said in a telephone interview. “We haven’t made a forecast yet, but we’re watching it closely and the snow cover has definitely been above normal so far.”

The more ground covered by snow across northern Europe and Asia at the end of October, the greater the chances of triggering a phenomenon known as the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. That would flood North America, Europe and East Asia with polar air and possibly erect a blocking effect in the North Atlantic that would bottle up the cold in the U.S.

In September, 2.36 million square kilometers (911,000 square miles) of northern Europe and Asia were covered by snow, according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. That compared with the 1981-2010 mean of 1.5 million.

“It’s running well above normal,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC, a commercial forecaster in Bethesda, Maryland. “Through the last week of September, it’s the highest snow total in Eurasia since 1977.”

Will it be a cold and potentially snowy winter this year?

Stay tuned.