Stormy north, bliss south, rains return in August?

Minnesota is a big piece of weather real estate.

It's amazing how different weather can be at the same moment in Pipestone and Grand Marais. Or Duluth and the Twin Cities just a short drive away.

While most Minnesotans bask in sunshine and balmy breezes this week, folks along the North Shore and Minnesota's Arrowhead fended of frisky afternoon thunderstorms sweeping quickly south from Canada.

Our slow moving weather pattern continues this week as high pressure edges in from the west, and showers and thunderstorms sweep south around a whirling Great Lakes low.

In the weather biz we call it northwest flow. The translation is spotty afternoon showers east, low humidity and free summertime air conditioning.

Weather complaints department?  Down the hall to the right. Way down the hall.

Dry for now; rains return in August?

All indications are that our (mostly) dry weather pattern will hold for the next week. There are some signs that our monsoon-style rains could return toward the end of next week.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System is hinting at an evolving upper air pattern featuring a significant low pressure trough over the Rockies.

That is usually a favorable pattern for summer thunderstorm clusters. In fact, the latest GFS runs are trying to crank up an almost fall looking mid-latitude cyclone by late next week over Iowa, with Minnesota right under the rainfall bull's-eye again.

It may be a model hiccup or fantasy at this early stage, but it's something we'll have to keep an eye on. The accompanying rainfall output burst in the second half of NOAA's 16-day GFS made my jaw drop more than just a little.

Again, its probably just a late summer model hiccup.

But definitely stay tuned.