Canadian invasion now, drought concerns ahead?
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I wonder if Canadians curse hot and humid "American air masses" surging north in July?
The weather maps and one step outside into a bracing air mass are clear reminders that it's still February, and the season we call winter in Minnesota.
These can be deceptive days at this latitude. The sun is shining brighter now. It's still bright past 5:30 in the evening. But incoming air masses can't shake off the deep winter cold up north just yet.
Give it a month. Maybe even three weeks.
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The next item on Minnesota's weather menu? Wind chill advisories. That combination of temperatures pushing toward the zero mark and a brisk northwest wind pushes "apparent temperatures" (wind chills) to -30 across northern Minnesota overnight and Thursday morning.
Arctic waves ahead
Our current air mass is just round one of a three round Canadian invasion force. The air you are breathing today came from near Great Slave Lake in Canada's Northwest Territories three days ago. Take a look at the HYSPLIT air mass trajectory plot as it tracks the trajectory of this air mass from Canada into Minnesota and points east.
The first arctic high pressure cell rides east in the next 48 hours. Minnesota briefly works into a milder Pacific air mass wedge Friday before the next arctic high pressure cell noses south on the maps for this weekend.
This weekend's air mass is slightly more bitter than today's chill. Temperatures Saturday will hover near the zero mark, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Three separate arctic waves arrive in the next week, with briefly moderating temperatures between them.
Right now, the longer-range trends favor cold air into late February. I don't see any big Pacific pushes with extended thawing temperatures just yet. Prepare for winter status quo until further notice.
Snow drought continues
Northern Minnesota has done better on snow this winter. In the metro the snow drought continues.
23.7" season snowfall at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport so far this winter
-13.2" vs. average
39.7" season snowfall to date last winter
77.3" season snowfall so far in Boston
Yes, the Twin Cities metro area is running over a foot below average on snow this winter. And no, we're not going to come anywhere close to what Boston is dealing with this winter. In November, I tossed out 49 to 59 inches as a potential snowfall range this winter. That may work for Duluth which has picked up 35.9 inches so far this winter, but I am beginning to think we won't make the low end of that range in the metro this winter.
A full 98 percent of Minnesota is now abnormally dry, or in "pre-drought" phase as I like to say.
Will the infamous March "State Tournament Snowstorm Season" put a dent in our Twin Cities snow drought?
Stay tuned.
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