Saturday severe risk, feeling 50 degrees cooler next weekend?

The 'Severe Summer of 2016' continues Saturday across Minnesota.

This summer is keeping meteorologists and Doppler watchers of all stripes busy. Another active model run. Another 'risk area.' Another barrage of watches from NOAA's SPC and warnings from you local NWS office.

Lather, rinse repeat.

Our next severe weathermaker pushes another storm pulse in Saturday. Conditions look ripe for severe storm clusters to congeal into another squall-line racing across Minnesota Saturday afternoon and evening. Tornado parameters are higher than usual for parts of central Minnesota Saturday afternoon.

Keep the NOAA weather radio and your favorite phone app ready Saturday.

Saturday risk zone

The severe weather bull's eye Saturday rests firmly over Minnesota. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center paints a sea of  'caution yellow' across the Upper Midwest Saturday.

The main threat favors another straight-line damaging wind event with hail, but tornado indicators are higher than usual. I won't be surprised if NOAA elevates our risk to 'enhanced' Saturday in the next convective outlook update.

Frontal combo

It's a 2-for-1 frontal combo deal Saturday across Minnesota. First, advancing low pressure drags a warm front through with another shot of heat and high humidity. Tropical 70-degree dew points return, along with a chance for rotating storms developing along the warm frontal boundary Saturday afternoon. Then the cold front slices into our steamy air mass later in the day. That should be the trigger mechanism for a developing squall line by evening.

Oh joy.

NOAA's NAM 4km resolution model seem to have an excellent handle on the sequence of event Saturday. Watch as individual 'discrete' storms pop along the warm frontal boundary. These will have to be watched for tornado potential. Then yet another bowing squall-line races east later in the day.

Tornado risk zone

A few of the tornado parameters suggest a higher than usual risk for tornadoes Saturday afternoon. The favored area for twisting winds, with significant low level wind shear capable of spawning a few tornadoes seems to favor central Minnesota near Brainerd and St. Cloud, and may include the Twin Cities depending on how specific events unfold.

Still cleaning up, up north

Ely and the BWCA were among the hardest hit areas in this week's blowdown up north.

MPR's John Enger reports that Ely area accomodations are on overload after the storm has displaced so many vacationers.

Best of bad choices?

As a veteran BWCA tripper and camper I have lived through my share of severe storms in the wilderness. Some of you have asked me what to do if you're caught camping during severe weather.

Being caught camping in a severe storms can be like being caught in a tornado in a car, you may have to make the best of bad choices in a hurry.

One thing I do is to look for large rocks at the campsite upon arrival. Many BWCA campsites have huge boulders called 'glacial erratics' that can be used as storm shelters when weather gets bad. It's not pretty, but laying next to some of these boulders could offer safer shelter if trees start coming down. In the absence of any safe shelter, the best bet may be to go to the shoreline facing the wind if possible and find a small tree or roots to cling to. Again, not pretty and rain gear is critical to avoid hypothermia, but being upwind of trees falling away from you inland is better than being caught under falling trees.

Another free sauna

The high-octane fuel for severe storms in summer? High dew point values. Dew points are an absolute measure of moisture int he atmosphere. The higher the dew point number, the more you sweat. Dew points surge into the 70s once again Saturday across Minnesota. Cooler by the lake.

Still hot Saturday

I'm surprised many forecasters are overselling relief Saturday. With dew points returning to the 70s, and temperatures pushing 90 degrees once again if we get enough sun it's going to be steamy out there Saturday. Most of Minnesota will have to wait until Sunday evening until real relief arrives.

Free AC next week

Temperature moderation arrives next week. The upper air flow shifts to a more zonal east-west configuration. That should allow a more direct transfusion of Canadian air south late next week.

NOAA's GFS 16-day temperature output cranks out high in the lower 70s by the weekend of July 30th. After this week's Tabasco-like heat wave with a heat index of 120F Thursday in Savage in the south metro, it could feel about 50 degrees cooler by next weekend. Time to give the AC a rest and throw open those windows.

The uber-long range outlook favors a return to near 90-degree heat in by the weekend of August 6th as the heat dome nudges north once again.

• 97 degrees - high temperature at MSP Friday

• 10th day at or above 90 so far in 2016

• 6 days - combined number of days at or above 90 in the past 2 years

• 11 days - average number of days at or above 90 each year at MSP

https://twitter.com/MarkJWestpfahl/status/756606375652913153

2016 blowing away global temperature records, again

And the global hot weather hits just keep on comin'.

Climate watchers expected 2016 global temperatures to get off to a fast start given last winter's near record warm El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean. But the magnitude of record warmth in the first half of 2016 is shocking to many.

It's as if global temperatures have suddenly lurched into new climatic territory in the past few years.

Here's an update from Andrea Thompson at Climate Central.

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The first half of 2016 has blown away temperature records, capped off by a record hot June, once again bumping up the odds that 2016 will be the hottest year on record globally, according to data released Tuesday.

The monthly numbers from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts the planet on track to surpass 2015 as the hottest on record.

“2016 has really blown that out of the water,” Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said.

While 2016 has gotten a boost from an exceptionally strong El Niño, the record temps are mostly the result of the excess heat that has built up in Earth’s atmosphere due to accumulating greenhouse gases. That heat is raising global sea levels, disrupting ecosystems and leading to more extreme weather events.

Every month this year has been record warm globally. Several months early in the year were among the first ever recorded to exceed 1°C (1.8°F) above average according to both NASA and NOAA. All six months of the year so far exceeded that remarkable benchmark when compared to preindustrial temperatures.

Global economy less energy intense

This is encouraging to many climate watchers. The global economy is becoming less energy intense. The goal moving forward is to decouple growth from carbon emissions. Strong economic growth and a clean energy future? What a concept.

Bobby Magill from Climate Central and Climate Cast guest Michael Mann elaborate.

The amount of coal, oil, gas and renewable energy used by the global economy is falling quickly, a clear sign that economic growth is having less of an impact on climate change than in the past, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Energy.

The measure of the amount of energy that is used per unit of gross domestic product is known as energy intensity, and it’s an important indicator in the progress countries are making in tackling climate change. Globally, energy intensity has fallen 30 percent since 1990, and about 2 percent between 2014 and 2015.

“This is excellent news,” Penn State University climatologist Michael Mann said. “The dramatic drop we are seeing in global energy intensity is a very direct indication that energy efficiency measures are having a very direct impact on global carbon emissions.”

Another key indicator is carbon intensity — how much carbon is emitted as a result of the energy people consume.

“The carbon intensity is also decreasing due to the rapid transition that is now already taking place away from fossil fuel burning toward renewable energy,” Mann said.

Energy intensity affects greenhouse gases because much of the energy used in the global economy comes from fossil fuels. As countries use less fossil fuels and become more efficient with their energy use, carbon emissions will also fall.

Energy intensity in the U.S. is roughly average compared to other large countries. The Department of Energy (EIA)estimates that the worldwide energy intensity was about 5,500 Btus per dollar of GDP in 2015, while the U.S. burned about 5,900 Btus per dollar last year.

Canada and Russia are among the most energy-intensive countries in the world, burning about 9,800 Btus per dollar in 2015. Developing countries such as India and Mexico are the least energy intensive. Mexico and Chile burned 3,700 Btus per dollar in 2015, while India used 3,800 Btus per dollar.

Until recently, the global economy and greenhouse gas emissions increased and decreased together. They have long been linked because, historically, a growing economy required burning a growing volume of fossil fuels to keep factories and vehicle engines running.

Assessing climate risk exposure

How well does the risk community asses the changing landscape as our energy economy evolves? It's a growing question moving forward that will impact all of us financially through our investments.

Reuters Carolyn Cohn has an interesting piece on how insurers may or may not be accurately gauging climate risk.

Only one percent of insurers globally are assessing the risk of being left with investments in “stranded assets” — oil and gas reserves held by companies which may prove unviable as the world moves to a low-carbon economy, a study showed on Thursday.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney used the term in a speech last September in which he called on companies to be more open about their climate change exposure to avoid abrupt changes in asset prices that could destabilise markets.

The insurers lag behind pension funds, 6 percent of whom are assessing the risks, according to the study by the Asset Owners Disclosure Project (AODP), a not-for-profit organisation.

With heavy competition in the sector, insurers have increasingly been relying on investment income, rather than underwriting, to boost profits.

“Insurers are specialists in risk management, but while they may understand the implications of climate change in their underwriting, they are failing to join the dots on the investment side,” Julian Poulter, CEO of AODP, said in a statement.

“It is extraordinary that the left hand doesn’t seem to know what the right hand is doing.”

Only 12 percent of insurers are taking “tangible” action more broadly to cut climate change risk in their portfolios, compared with 23 percent of pension funds, the study showed.