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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Blizzard watch issued, storm track uncertainty continues

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Winter storm and blizzard conditions are likely across southern Minnesota Thursday night and Friday. Still, substantial uncertainties in the forecast are making it hard to pinpoint the precise location of the heavy snow band.

First, the current state of winter weather watches and most likely snowfall scenario.

2-22-msp

What we know:

  • Winter weather conditions will develop rapidly Thursday across southwest Minnesota and spread northeast.

  • Wind and snow will cause travel conditions to deteriorate rapidly Thursday and Thursday night.

  • The heaviest snow band with this storm still has the capability to generate 6" to 12" snowfall totals.

  • Locally heavier snowfall totals up to 18" are possible.

What's still uncertain:

  • There is still significant model uncertainty in the precise storm track, and therefore the location of the heaviest snow band.

  • The Twin Cities appears to be in a location that may straddle the heaviest snowfall band, meaning we could see a big snowfall range across the metro.

The storm

The system is one of the most powerful to wrap up over Minnesota this winter. In addition to plenty of moisture, a tight pressure gradient will generate plenty of wind-driven snow.

Here's NOAA GFS model's latest version of the storm and track. Note the sharp snowfall cutoff on the northwest edge.

2-22-gfs
NOAA GFS model via tropical tidbits.

Pinpointing the heavy snow band

The GFS model suggests the heaviest snowfall band will layout across southern Minnesota. In this scenario, there would be a big spread in snowfall from north to south with a over 10" possible on the south metro, but just a few inches in the far northwest. A 2" to 12" snowfall range across the metro? It's happened before and it could happen again this week.

2-22-gfs-snow
NOAA GFS model snowfall output via tropical tidbits.

NOAA's NAM model brings the heaviest snow band right into the heart of the metro. But many meteorologists note the NAM model often has a northward bias on storm track.

2-22-nam-snow
NOAA NAM model snowfall output via tropical tidbits.com.

The Euro and Canadian GEM model favor a more southerly track.

2-22-gem-snow
Canadian GEM snowfall output via tropical tidbits.com

At this point I like the looks of NOAA's GFS model the best, but I'll admit confidence is not as high as usual 24 hours ahead of the onset of winter storm conditions.

Stay tuned for updates and possible forecast changes with this one folks.