Severe weather risk later today; howling winds could hit 50 mph+
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The March Lion is late to the party, but ready to roar.
A relatively rare early March slight severe weather risk has been expanded to include the Twin Cities later today into this evening. Wind advisories kick in tonight, and a high wind watch is in effect for Tuesday.
Mild first
Temperatures bottomed out at just 52 degrees in the Twin Cities Monday morning. If we stay above 44 until midnight, we'll set a new daily record high minimum temperatures at MSP for March 6. Keep in mind the average high temp for today is 36 degrees.
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Temps soar into the mid-60s close to the Twin Cities today, and 70 looks likely for southwest Minnesota.
Enjoy it. It likely won't get this warm again for at least two weeks.
Thunder threat
A powerful cold front slices through the early March warmth this afternoon. A narrow band of intense and focused lift along the frontal zone should trigger a north-south line of storms. The storms will pack gusty winds to 50 mph+, and small hail. A few of the storms could reach severe limits, a relatively rare occurrence for early March.
Thundery supper
NOAA's NAM suite of models sweeps a line of thunder across the Twin Cities between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. this evening.
Howling winds overnight and Tuesday
Tonight's storms will be gusty with small hail potential. But widespread and more sustained winds kick in tonight after the cold front passes through. The tight pressure gradient between today's warmth and the inbound cold air mass will mean sustained winds of 35 mph, and gusts topping 50 to 60 mph in open areas. Tuesday's wind map just looks bad.
Batten down the hatches and small pets tonight and Tuesday.
Return to March
Tonight's cold front is the real deal. It looks like we're in for a belated, but sustained run of more typical March cold across the northern tier the next one to two weeks.
Look for a string of days with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s and teens. Ice-out is on hold for at least another one to two weeks across Minnesota. Temps begin to moderate the weekend of March 18-19.
Keep an eye and ear out for bumpy, and potentially severe storms this evening.
Proposed NOAA budget cuts may affect forecast accuracy, risk lives
I'll have much more on this as the week unfolds, but here's a good quick read on the proposed deep cuts to NOAA.
And here's additional perspective from Forbes.
Ironically I was marveling at breathtaking new GOES-16 weather satellite data that has started to flow to National Weather Service forecasters when I heard about proposed deep cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) budget. The Washington Post broke this story yesterday, and it literally sent shockwaves through many scientific, stakeholder and industry communities. NOAA is the lead agency for the nation's weather forecasts, weather satellites, fisheries, ocean services and climate monitoring. If you rely on TV weather forecasts, use a weather app, eat fish, enjoy boating or claim your status as an Earthling, these cuts potentially have implications for you.
