Weather Whiplash: 50 degrees, snow, and sub-zero cold in one week
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Buckle up Minnesota. This is one of those weeks that reminds us we live in the Superbowl of Weather.
50 degrees and bare ground in southwest Minnesota? Check. A possible snow system winding up? Roger that. A Siberian Express Arctic invasion with air temperatures pushing -20 to -30 degrees? Affirmative.
Yes weather fans, factor in wind chill and it could feel almost 100 degrees colder in parts of Minnesota next week.
Mild December continues
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Temperatures so far this month are still running 4.6 degrees warmer than average at MSP Airport. International Falls is running 4.1 degree above average. Duluth is closer to average this month at +1.5 degrees.
Southwest Minnesota hit 50 degrees Monday afternoon.
Our current mild spell pads those numbers through Tuesday.
Temperatures: Downhill this week
Remember how it feels to be at the top of the roller coaster gaining speed downhill? Temperatures stabilize near average territory midweek, then crash as we head toward the Christmas weekend. Primal scream optional.
Snow chances
Snow still looks likely Wednesday into Thursday. The remaining questions center on where the heavier snows will fall. And, as always, how much? And of course, there are still significant forecast model differences.
NOAA's GFS model leans toward a 2-part solution. The first wave brings a band of snow across central and northern Minnesota Wednesday and Wednesday night. The 2nd wave with the main parent low brings a shot of heavier snow to southern Minnesota Thursday.
Under this solution, the heaviest snows (6"+ potential) would fall in southeast Minnesota just south of MSP.
King Euro?
The European model is a bit more aggressive with snowfall for the Twin Cities. The Euro cranks out .52" liquid equivalent of snow at MSP Thursday into Friday. That could translate into a cool 5" to 6" if it verifies.
Bottom line: Expect some snow Wednesday and Thursday across Minnesota. We'll see how much consensus the models can achieve in Tuesday's runs.
Merry Arctic Christmas
Santa will need to plug in the sleigh this year.
The coldest Arctic invasion this season may be the coldest in about 4 years. The Twin Cities hit -23 degrees on January 6, 2014.
The Arctic front surges south by Christmas Eve. The core of the coldest air arrives Christmas morning. The Polar Vortex parks over northern Minnesota Christmas Day.
All major models agree on a barbarically bitter air mass next weekend. Here's NOAA's temperature output. 20-below on Christmas morning in the Twin Cities and Rochester? It could happen.
Stay tuned.