Snowy north and south; prolonged Arctic invasion next week

The season formerly known as winter is coming.

The first wave of snowfall cranks up today across north central Minnesota. Winter weather advisories are flying from the Red River Valley to Duluth. That's where a band of 3 to 6 inches of fresh powder accumulates by midday Thursday.

Disorganized low

Minnesota's next weather maker slides south tonight and Thursday. The two-phase low-pressure system still looks most likely to graze the Twin Cities, while bringing shovelable snow to the north and south.

Environment Canada's GEM model captures the essence of the north-south split bracketing the Twin Cities.

I still think the most likely solution for the Twin Cities is a snowy coating to around and inch by later Thursday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System model clings to some hope for a few inches of snow in the Twin Cities, but sadly for snow lovers it is the distinct outlier this morning.

Here's the snowfall model spread from the NOAA models for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

Arctic Christmas

One thing all the model agree on in the next week? A prolonged cold wave starting around Christmas Eve. Temperatures hover in the 20s the next few days, then head south into subzero territory in the Twin Cities by Christmas morning.

Polar vortex 

The upper air charts continue to crank out a lobe of the polar vortex spinning south toward Minnesota and the Great Lakes next week.

The core of the coldest air favors northern Minnesota. Waves of freakishly-colored sub-zero air pulse south next week. Here's NOAA's Global Forecast System model between Christmas and New Year's Eve.

We'll be making some serious ice across Minnesota next week.

Baked Alaska

Meanwhile temperatures are running 20 degrees warmer than average in Fairbanks, Alaska, this month.

It was so warm in Barrow, Alaska, this fall it actually faked out NOAA's weather sensors there.