Rivers nearing crests; midweek rain chances

It's the final day of March!

Do you remember the Twin Cities low temp of 13 below zero and high temp of zero on March 3? How about the 10.3 inches of snow that fell in two storms during the first 10 days of the month?

Happily, the snow melted and our temperatures have moderated nicely since that wintry beginning. If you want to impress your friends with March weather stats, they can be found here.

Warm thoughts

Our Twin Cities average high temps ramp up during the next few months:

• 50 April 1

• 65 May 1

• 74 June 1

• 83 July 1

The Twin Cities average high temp peaks at 84 degrees from July 6 through July 21.

Temperature trends

Much of northern Minnesota is expected to top out in the 30s Sunday afternoon, with highs in the 40s to the south.

Most of Minnesota will have Monday afternoon highs in the 40s:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by upper 40s Thursday and mid 50s on Friday.  We could reach the 60s next weekend.

Rain and snow chances

Some scattered flurries are possible in parts of northwestern and west-central Minnesota this Sunday morning, then the precipitation is expected to change to scattered sprinkles as it spreads southeastward this afternoon. The Twin Cities metro area will have a chance of scattered sprinkles this afternoon and this evening.

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3 p.m. update

Some sprinkles and flurries are possible in the metro area and elsewhere in central and southern Minnesota the remainder of this afternoon and this evening.

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Models still don't agree on the Wednesday/Thursday rain chance in southern and central Minnesota. Some models keep most of the rain to our south. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows this pattern Wednesday through Thursday:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.

NOAA's experimental FV3-GFS forecast model shifts the rain a bit to the south:

We'll see how the models change as we get closer to Wednesday.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

River levels

Many locations along our Minnesota rivers remain at major or moderate flood stage. There are numerous flood warnings in effect. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website. Areas with flood warnings are shaded green on the NWS main page; here’s how the map looked Sunday morning:

The latest flood warnings and flood outlooks for northwestern Minnesota can be found on the NWS Grand Forks, N.D. site. Here’s how their map looked Sunday morning:

The Mississippi River at St. Paul remains at major flood stage. Here’s the NWS summary for that location, which was issued Saturday night:

805 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

The Flood Warning continues for

The Mississippi River at St. Paul.

* until further notice.

* At  7:00 PM Saturday the stage was 19.5 feet.

* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.

* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.0 feet by

Monday morning then begin falling.

* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Warner Road may become impassable due to

high water.

* Impact...At 17.5 feet...Harriet Island begins to become submerged.

* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to

experience flooding.

* Impact...At 13.3 feet...Water begins to encroach on Water St.

You can check for an updated flood statement here.

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9:45 a.m. update

Here's the updated NWS flood warning for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

930 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019

The Flood Warning continues for

The Mississippi River at St. Paul.

* until further notice.

* At  9:00 AM Sunday the stage was 19.7 feet.

* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.

* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.9 feet by this

evening then begin falling.

* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Warner Road may become impassable due to

high water.

* Impact...At 17.5 feet...Harriet Island begins to become submerged.

* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to

experience flooding.

* Impact...At 13.3 feet...Water begins to encroach on Water St.

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You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

Here’s the Sunday morning hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

The Mississippi River has reached the eighth highest level ever recorded at the St. Paul gauge:

Here’s a Sunday morning look at the flooding at Harriet Island in St. Paul:

The pavilion on Harriet Island is surrounded by water:

Parts of Raspberry Island are covered with water:

Here's a broader view, which includes the western side of Raspberry Island and the Wabasha Street Bridge in St. Paul:

Off to the east, the St. Croix River continues to rise.  Here’s the Sunday morning hydrograph for the St. Croix River at Stillwater:

The Minnesota River at New Ulm continues to rise:

Projected river levels are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and the NWS point forecasts for the latest info on the rivers near you. The NWS also posts some flooding details here.

If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river, check here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.