Mild winter overall? February holds the key

The end of January is a week away.

It’s already clear that this month will go down significantly warmer than average. Temperatures are running about 3 degrees warmer than average across much of Minnesota. The next week will run 5 to 15 degrees warmer than average across Minnesota.

December ran milder than average, too. Here are December temperatures compared to average for a few cities.

• Duluth: +2.6 degrees

• Twin Cities: +3.5 degrees

• International Falls, Minn.: +3.6 degrees

So overall, the first two months of meteorological winter will run at least 4 degrees warmer than across much of Minnesota. There’s been above average snowfall in northern Minnesota. Duluth has picked up 71.7 inches so far this winter season. But it’s been milder than average.

February?

So, the real tale of the tape this winter will be decided by February. It will take a severely cold February to push overall winter temperatures to near average. Right now there are mixed signals about February temperatures.

NOAA’s CFS 2 product has mostly favored warmer than average temperatures for February.

One prominent climate forecaster seems to think we may be headed for a warmer than average February. If we don’t get a big Polar Vortex outbreak soon, he thinks we can put a fork in winter.

I’m not ready to write off a respectably wintry February for Minnesota just yet. But I do think the tea leaves favor warmer than average temperatures overall. And I think anything close to a repeat of last February’s record 38-inch snow blitz is highly unlikely.

And three April blizzards in a row? Anything can happen, but the odds are stacked against it in 2020.

We’re definitely going to get more winter weather in Minnesota. But my weather-spidey senses tell me we may be in for a kinder and gentler spring this year.

Stay tuned.