A mild Saturday; windy with heavy snow in some areas Sunday and Sunday night

Our Saturday weather will be good for anyone who wants to do some walking, jogging, running or biking…as we continue to practice social-distancing.

Parts of northeastern Minnesota may see a brief snow shower today, and far southern Minnesota will have a chance of scattered rain showers late this afternoon and this evening. Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 56 degrees this time of year. We may reach the upper 50s in parts of the metro area this afternoon. Highs in the 50s are expected across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday afternoon, with some 40s in far northern Minnesota.

The big story on Sunday will be the snow, but it’s worth mentioning that Sunday high temps will be chilly, with a lot of 30s:

The Twin Cities metro area and points to the south and east may reach the lower 40s early Sunday, with falling temps much of the day.

Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible Sunday afternoon in central and southern Minnesota:

Plotted values are in knots, with 20 knots equal around 23 mph.

The snow

I know, most of us are annoyed by snow this time of year. Keep in mind that April snow typically melts within a few days.

Computer models show rain or a rain/snow mix spreading across southern Minnesota overnight Saturday night, arriving in Twin Cities late tonight. The mix transitions to wet snow in southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities on Sunday as the area of snow expands to include western Wisconsin and parts of northeastern Minnesota. Snow continues in many areas Sunday night, then tapers off from west to east Monday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model includes the Twin Cities metro area, southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin in its swath of plowable snow Sunday through Sunday night:

Northwestern Minnesota will miss this wintry storm. Southern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin have the best chance of seeing 6 or more inches of snow from Sunday through Sunday night:

Twin Cities metro area snow amounts Sunday through Sunday night may range from 2 to 4 inches in northern Anoka County to 6 or 7 inches in southern parts of Scott County and Dakota County. There’s the potential for a swath of some double-digit snow totals from around Fairmont to Rochester to Winona and on to Eau Claire, Wisconsin. The timing of the changeover from a rain/snow mix to all snow and the exact storm track will be factors in snow totals.

Here’s a look at potential snow totals Sunday into early Monday in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

Watches and advisories

A winter storm watch includes most of the Twin Cities metro area and southern Minnesota plus western Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday night:

Here are details of the winter storm watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 957 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 ...Heavy Snow Expected Sunday into Monday... .Heavy snow is expected to fall across parts of the area Sunday into Monday. Snowfall rates of one inch per hour or higher appear possible Sunday afternoon and evening which will allow the snow to quickly accumulate. The chance for snowfall amounts of 6 inches or more appears highest from southern and east central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. In addition, this will likely be a heavy, wet snow. Some tree damage and power outages could occur due to the combination of gusty winds and the heavy wet snow. All are urged to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. MNZ060-062-063-067>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ023>026-112300- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0006.200412T1200Z-200413T1200Z/ Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Brown- Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele- Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin- Including the cities of Minneapolis, St Paul, Stillwater, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, Albert Lea, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, and Durand 957 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of west central Wisconsin and central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Due to the heavy, wet nature of the snow, tree damage and power outages could occur.

Here are details of the Sunday winter weather advisory in parts of southwestern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-097-098-SDZ055-056-061-062-066-067- 111615- /O.NEW.KFSD.WW.Y.0018.200412T0900Z-200413T0000Z/ Lyon-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-Lake-Moody- McCook-Minnehaha-Turner- 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

The week ahead

After a chance of scattered Monday morning snow showers in the metro area, the remainder of the coming week looks dry. Twin cities highs are projected to reach the upper 30s on Monday and around 40 Tuesday, followed by lower 40s Wednesday, upper 40s Thursday and lower 50s Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.