");vwo_$('head').append(_vwo_sel);return vwo_$('head')[0] && vwo_$('head')[0].lastChild;})("HEAD")}}, R_940895_48_1_2_0:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {
if(!vwo_$.fn.vwoRevertHtml){
return;
};
var ctx=vwo_$(x),el;
/*vwo_debug log("Revert","content",""); vwo_debug*/;
el=vwo_$('[vwo-element-id="1742919897117"]');
el.revertContentOp().remove();})("HEAD")}}, C_940895_48_1_2_1:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
/*vwo_debug log("editElement",".stylingblock-content-margin-cell > table:nth-of-type(1) > tbody:nth-of-type(1) > tr:nth-of-type(1) > td:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > h2:nth-of-type(1) > span:nth-of-type(1)"); vwo_debug*/(el=vwo_$(".stylingblock-content-margin-cell > table:nth-of-type(1) > tbody:nth-of-type(1) > tr:nth-of-type(1) > td:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > h2:nth-of-type(1) > span:nth-of-type(1)")).html("Hello! David Brancaccio here. Do you want instant access to the free online course - “Economics 101” - to understand basic economic concepts?");})(".stylingblock-content-margin-cell > table:nth-of-type(1) > tbody:nth-of-type(1) > tr:nth-of-type(1) > td:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > h2:nth-of-type(1) > span:nth-of-type(1)")}}, R_940895_48_1_2_1:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {
if(!vwo_$.fn.vwoRevertHtml){
return;
};
var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
/*vwo_debug log("Revert","editElement",".stylingblock-content-margin-cell > table:nth-of-type(1) > tbody:nth-of-type(1) > tr:nth-of-type(1) > td:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > h2:nth-of-type(1) > span:nth-of-type(1)"); vwo_debug*/(el=vwo_$(".stylingblock-content-margin-cell > table:nth-of-type(1) > tbody:nth-of-type(1) > tr:nth-of-type(1) > td:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > h2:nth-of-type(1) > span:nth-of-type(1)")).vwoRevertHtml();})(".stylingblock-content-margin-cell > table:nth-of-type(1) > tbody:nth-of-type(1) > tr:nth-of-type(1) > td:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > div:nth-of-type(1) > h2:nth-of-type(1) > span:nth-of-type(1)")}}, C_940895_48_1_2_2:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
/*vwo_debug log("content","[vwo-element-id='1742482566780']"); vwo_debug*/(el=vwo_$("[vwo-element-id='1742482566780']")).replaceWith2("You'll gain real-world insights into how economics impacts your daily life with this easy-to-follow online course. This crash course is based on the acclaimed textbook Economy, Society, and Public Policy by CORE Econ, tailored to help you grasp key concepts without feeling overwhelmed.
Whether you're new to economics or just want to deepen your understanding, this course covers the basics and connects them to today’s pressing issues—from inequality to public policy decisions.
Each week, you'll receive a reading guide that distills core principles, offers actionable takeaways, and explains how they affect the current world. While the full ebook enriches the experience, the guides alone provide a comprehensive understanding of fundamental economic ideas.
You’ll find this course especially useful and unique because…"),el=vwo_$("[vwo-element-id='1742482566780']");})("[vwo-element-id='1742482566780']")}}, C_940895_39_1_2_0:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {
try{
var _vwo_sel = vwo_$("`);
!vwo_$("head").find('#1740425171461').length && vwo_$('head').append(_vwo_sel);}catch(e) {console.error(e)}
try{}catch(e) {console.error(e)}
try{const getCurrentDate = (d = new Date()) => d.toISOString().split('T')[0];
function vwoCustomEvent (labelValue) {
window.VWO = window.VWO || [];
VWO.event = VWO.event || function () {VWO.push(["event"].concat([].slice.call(arguments)))};
VWO.event("customEvent", { "label": labelValue.toString() });
}
class RadioButtonComponent {
constructor (element) {
this.radio = element.querySelector('input[type="radio"]');
this.label = element.querySelector('label');
}
get value () {
let value = this.radio.value;
if (Number.isNaN(parseFloat(value)))
return value;
if (parseFloat(value) % 1 == 0)
return parseInt(value);
return parseFloat(value);
}
set value (newValue) {
this.radio.value = newValue;
}
get text () {
return this.label.textContent;
}
set text (newText) {
if (this.label.querySelector('.form-required')) {
const labelTextNode = [...this.label.childNodes].filter(({ nodeType }) => nodeType === Node.TEXT_NODE)[0];
labelTextNode.nodeValue = newText;
} else {
this.label.textContent = newText;
}
}
get checked () {
return this.radio.checked;
}
set checked (bool) {
this.click(),
bool === true && this.radio.checked === true;
}
click () {
this.label.click();
}
select () {
this.click();
}
addEventListener (eventType, callbackFunction) {
switch (eventType) {
case 'click':
this.label.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction);
case 'change':
default:
this.radio.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction);
}
}
}
class TextFieldComponent {
constructor (element) {
this.input = element.querySelector('input[type="text"]');
this.label = element.querySelector('label');
}
get value () {
return this.input.value;
}
set value (newValue) {
this.input.dispatchEvent(new Event('focus'));
this.input.value = newValue;
this.input.dispatchEvent(new Event('keyup'));
this.input.dispatchEvent(new Event('change'));
this.input.dispatchEvent(new Event('blur'));
}
get text () {
return this.input.placeholder;
}
set text (newText) {
this.input.placeholder = newText;
}
addEventListener (eventType, callbackFunction) {
this.input.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction);
}
}
class GiftArrayButton extends RadioButtonComponent {
constructor (element) {
super(element);
}
get amount () {
return this.value;
}
set amount (newAmount) {
if (Number.isNaN(parseInt(newAmount)) || parseInt(newAmount) <= 0)
throw new Error("New amount must be a valid number greater than 0.");
newAmount = parseInt(newAmount);
this.text = '$' + newAmount;
this.value = newAmount;
}
}
class GiftArrayOtherAmount extends TextFieldComponent {
constructor (element) {
super(element);
}
get amount () {
return parseFloat(this.value);
}
set amount (newAmount) {
if (Number.isNaN(parseInt(newAmount)) || parseInt(newAmount) <= 0)
throw new Error("New amount must be a valid number greater than 0.");
newAmount = parseFloat(newAmount);
this.value = newAmount;
this.input.dispatchEvent(new Event('updateSummary'));
}
}
class GiftArray extends Array {
constructor (items) {
if (!Array.isArray(items) && items.length === 0) {
throw new Error("GiftArray: Arugment 1 is not an instance of Array with a length greater than 0:" + items.join(', '));
}
if (items.every((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayButton || item instanceof GiftArrayOtherAmount)) {
if (items.find((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayOtherAmount)) {
let temp = items.find((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayOtherAmount);
items = items.filter((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayButton);
items.push(temp);
}
} else if (items.every((item) => item instanceof HTMLElement)) {
items = items.map((item) => item.matches(".webform-component-textfield") ? new GiftArrayOtherAmount(item) : new GiftArrayButton(item));
} else {
throw new Error("GiftArray: Arugment 1 is not of type HTMLElement, HTMLElement[], or GiftArrayButton|GiftArrayButton[]:" + items.join(', '));
}
super(...items);
this.Buttons = items.filter((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayButton);
this.OtherAmountInput = items.find((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayOtherAmount);
}
get amount () {
const activeButton = this.Buttons.find((item) => item.checked);
if (activeButton.value === "other") {
const otherButton = activeButton;
if (!otherButton) {
throw new Error("GiftArray.amount: Other Button was not defined.");
}
otherButton.click();
return this.OtherAmountInput.value;
} else {
return activeButton.value;
}
}
set amount (newAmount) {
if (Number.isNaN(parseInt(newAmount)) || parseInt(newAmount) <= 0)
throw new Error("New amount must be a valid number greater than 0.");
newAmount = parseFloat(newAmount);
const matchingButton = this.find((item) => item.value === newAmount);
if (matchingButton) {
matchingButton.click();
} else {
const otherButton = this.Buttons.find((item) => item.value === "other");
otherButton.click();
this.OtherAmountInput.amount = newAmount;
}
}
addEventListeners (eventType, callbackFunction, filter = undefined) {
if (filter && typeof filter === 'function') {
const filteredItems = this.filter((item) => filter.call(this, item));
filteredItems.forEach((item) => item.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction));
} else if (filter && typeof filter === 'string') {
if (filter.match(/buttons/gmi))
this.Buttons.forEach((item) => item.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction));
if (filter.match(/other/gmi))
this.OtherAmountInput.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction);
} else {
this.forEach((item) => item.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction));
}
}
}
class FrequencyButton extends RadioButtonComponent {
constructor (element) {
super(element);
}
get frequency () {
return this.text.match(/Monthly/gmi) ? "Monthly" : "One-Time";
}
set freqency (newAmount) {
if (Number.isNaN(parseInt(newAmount)) || parseInt(newAmount) <= 0)
throw new Error("New amount must be a valid number greater than 0.");
newAmount = parseInt(newAmount);
this.text = '$' + newAmount;
this.value = newAmount;
}
}
class FrequencyArray extends Array {
constructor (items) {
if (!Array.isArray(items) && items.length === 0) {
throw new Error("FrequencyArray: Arugment 1 is not an instance of Array with a length greater than 0:" + items.join(', '));
}
/*if (items.every((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayButton || item instanceof GiftArrayOtherAmount)) {
if (items.find((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayOtherAmount)) {
let temp = items.find((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayOtherAmount);
items = items.filter((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayButton);
items.push(temp);
}
} else*/ if (items.every((item) => item instanceof HTMLElement)) {
items = items.map((item) => item.matches(".webform-component-textfield") ? new GiftArrayOtherAmount(item) : new GiftArrayButton(item));
} else {
throw new Error("FrequencyArray: Arugment 1 is not of type HTMLElement or HTMLElement[]:" + items.join(', '));
}
super(...items);
this.Buttons = items.filter((item) => item instanceof GiftArrayButton);
}
get frequency () {
const activeButton = this.Buttons.find((item) => item.checked);
if (activeButton.value === "recurs")
return "monthly";
if (activeButton.value === "NO_RECURR")
return "one-time";
return activeButton.value;
}
set frequency (newFrequency) {
const reNewFrequencyValue = new RegExp(newFrequency, 'gmi');
const matchingButton = this.find((item) => item.value.match(reNewFrequencyValue) || item.text.match(reNewFrequencyValue));
matchingButton.click();
}
get recurring () {
return this.frequency === "monthly" ? true : false;
}
set recurring (bool) {
this.frequency = bool === true ? "monthly" : "one-time";
}
addEventListeners (eventType, callbackFunction, filter = undefined) {
if (filter && typeof filter === 'function') {
const filteredItems = this.filter((item) => filter.call(this, item));
filteredItems.forEach((item) => item.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction));
} else if (filter && typeof filter === 'string') {
if (filter.match(/buttons/gmi))
this.Buttons.forEach((item) => item.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction));
if (filter.match(/other/gmi))
this.OtherAmountInput.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction);
} else {
this.forEach((item) => item.addEventListener(eventType, callbackFunction));
}
}
}
//
const lockedProperty = { writable: false, configurable: false, enumerable: true };
function DonationFormAPI (elements, options = {}) {
const defaultOptions = {
min: 1.00,
max: 999999.99,
makeTabbed: false,
fakeSubmit: true,
overrideGiftArrayValues: false,
};
options = { ...defaultOptions, ...options };
//
const { frequencyRadios, submitButton, root } = elements;
const [ amountRadiosOnetime, amountRadiosMonthly ] = elements.amountRadios;
const oneTimeOtherAmountWrapper = amountRadiosOnetime.find((div) => !div.matches('.webform-component-textfield') || div.querySelector('input[type="text"]'));
const oneTimeRadioButtons = amountRadiosOnetime.filter((div) => div !== oneTimeOtherAmountWrapper);
const monthlyOtherAmountWrapper = amountRadiosMonthly.find((div) => !div.matches('.webform-component-textfield') || div.querySelector('input[type="text"]'));
const monthlyRadioButtons = amountRadiosMonthly.filter((div) => div !== monthlyOtherAmountWrapper);
const debug = {
log: (...args) => window.NA.DonationForm.DEBUG_MODE && console.log(...args),
info: (...args) => window.NA.DonationForm.DEBUG_MODE && console.log(...args),
warn: (...args) => window.NA.DonationForm.DEBUG_MODE && console.log(...args),
error: (...args) => window.NA.DonationForm.DEBUG_MODE && console.log(...args),
};
//
const api = new Object();
Object.defineProperty(api, 'root', {
value: root,
writable: false,
configurable: true,
enumerable: true,
});
Object.defineProperties(api, {
'FORM_MINIMUM': {
value: options.min || 0,
...lockedProperty
},
'FORM_MAXIMUM': {
value: options.max || Infinity,
...lockedProperty
},
});
Object.defineProperties(api, {
GiftArrays: {
value: {
"one-time": new GiftArray([ ...oneTimeRadioButtons, oneTimeOtherAmountWrapper ]),
"monthly": new GiftArray([ ...monthlyRadioButtons, monthlyOtherAmountWrapper ]),
},
writable: false,
configurable: true,
enumerable: true,
},
Frequencies: {
value: new FrequencyArray(frequencyRadios),
writable: false,
configurable: true,
enumerable: true,
},
SubmitButton: {
value: submitButton,
writable: false,
configurable: false,
enumerable: true,
}
});
Object.defineProperties(api, {
'getFrequency': {
value: async function () {
if (!this || this === null) throw new Error("validate: Unable to read API context.");
return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
try {
resolve(this.Frequencies.frequency);
} catch (error) {
reject(error);
}
});
}, ...lockedProperty
},
'setFrequency': {
value: async function (frequency) {
if (!this || this === null) throw new Error("validate: Unable to read API context.");
return new Promise(async (resolve, reject) => {
try {
this.Frequencies.frequency = frequency;
if (await this.getFrequency() === frequency)
resolve(frequency);
} catch (error) {
reject(error);
}
});
}, ...lockedProperty
},
'getAmount': {
value: async function (frequency = undefined) {
if (!this || this === null) throw new Error("validate: Unable to read API context.");
return new Promise(async (resolve, reject) => {
try {
frequency = frequency || await this.getFrequency();
if (frequency && this.GiftArrays.hasOwnProperty(frequency)) {
const activeGiftArray = this.GiftArrays[frequency];
resolve(activeGiftArray.amount);
} else {
throw new Error("getAmount: Invalid frequency: " + frequency);
}
} catch (error) {
reject(error);
}
});
}, ...lockedProperty
},
'setAmount': {
value: async function (amount, frequency = undefined) {
if (!this || this === null) throw new Error("validate: Unable to read API context.");
return new Promise(async (resolve, reject) => {
try {
const currentFrequency = await this.getFrequency();
if (!frequency) {
frequency = currentFrequency;
} else if (frequency !== currentFrequency) {
frequency = await this.setFrequency(frequency);
}
if (frequency && this.GiftArrays.hasOwnProperty(frequency)) {
const activeGiftArray = this.GiftArrays[frequency];
activeGiftArray.amount = amount;
} else {
throw new Error("setAmount: Invalid frequency: " + frequency);
}
if (await this.getAmount() === amount)
resolve(amount);
} catch (error) {
reject(error);
}
});
}, ...lockedProperty
},
'getRecurring': {
value: async function () {
if (!this || this === null) throw new Error("validate: Unable to read API context.");
return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
try {
resolve(this.Frequencies.recurring);
} catch (error) {
reject(error);
}
});
}, ...lockedProperty
},
'setRecurring': {
value: async function (bool) {
if (!this || this === null) throw new Error("validate: Unable to read API context.");
return new Promise(async (resolve, reject) => {
try {
this.Frequencies.frequency = bool ? true : false;
if (await this.getRecurring() === bool)
resolve(bool);
} catch (error) {
reject(error);
}
});
}, ...lockedProperty
},
freqency: {
get () { return this.getFrequency() },
set (value) { this.setFrequency(value) },
enumerable: true, configurable: true,
},
amount: {
get () { return this.getAmount() },
set (value) { this.setAmount(value) },
enumerable: true, configurable: true,
},
recurring: {
get () { return this.getRecurring() },
set (value) { this.setRecurring(value) },
enumerable: true, configurable: true,
},
});
Object.defineProperties(api, {
'submit': {
value: async function (condition = this.validate||function(){return true}) {
//this.hooks['onBeforeSubmit'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(this));
let result;
const isAsyncFunction = (func) => func.constructor.name === "AsyncFunction";
if (Array.isArray(condition)) {
if (condition.every((c) => typeof c === 'function' && isAsyncFunction(c))) {
result = await Promise.all(condition.map(async (c) => await c.call(this)));
} else if (condition.every((c) => typeof c === 'function')) {
result = condition.every((c) => c.call(this));
} else if (condition.every((c) => c === true || c === false)) {
result = condition.every((c) => c);
}
} else if (typeof condition === 'function' && isAsyncFunction(condition)) {
result = await condition.call(this);
} else if (typeof condition === 'function') {
result = condition.call(this);
} else if (condition === true || condition === false) {
result = condition;
} else {
console.error("Unknown error.");
debugger;
}
//
if (result === true) {
if (window.NA.DonationForm.hasOwnProperty("DEBUG_MODE") && window.NA.DonationForm["DEBUG_MODE"] == true)
return console.log("Submit aborted (debug mode is enabled).");
this.SubmitButton.click(),
this.hooks['onSubmit'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(this));
//this.hooks['onAfterSubmit'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(this));
} else {
return console.log("Submit failed (conditions did not evaluate to true).");
}
}, ...lockedProperty
},
'interceptSubmit': {
value: function (handleInterceptedSubmit = () => { return new Promise((resolve) => resolve(undefined)) }) {
try {
window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButtonCopy = window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButtonCopy || createNewSubmitButton(window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButton, { cloneOriginal: false, hideOriginal: true, observeOriginal: false });
window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButtonCopy.addEventListener('click', async (event) => {
event.preventDefault(), event.stopPropagation();
const shouldFormSubmit = await handleInterceptedSubmit.call(this, event);
if (shouldFormSubmit) {
console.info("Submit allowed by initial interceptSubmit callback function resulting in a truthy evaluation.");
const formIsValid = await window.NA.DonationForm.validate();
if (!formIsValid) { // if submit allowed but there are known errors in the form
console.warn("Form has known errors. Attempting to submit to show errors then retrying.");
console.log("Submitting...");
window.NA.DonationForm.submit(true); // submit anyway to trigger the error to be shown
window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButton.style.setProperty("display", "none"), debug.info("SubmitButton hidden."), // hide the original submit button again
window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButtonCopy.style.setProperty("display", "none"), debug.info("SubmitButtonCopy hidden."); // hide the copy of the submit button again
window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButtonCopy.style.removeProperty("display"), debug.info("SubmitButtonCopy unhidden."); // show the copy of the submit button
} else {
console.log("Submitting...");
window.NA.DonationForm.submit(true);
}
} else {
console.log("Submit prevented.");
console.info("Next submit will be allowed.");
window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButton.style.removeProperty("display"), debug.info("SubmitButton unhidden."); // show the original submit button so that if something goes wrong the user can still click the submit button
window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButtonCopy.style.setProperty("display", "none"), debug.info("SubmitButtonCopy hidden."); // hide the copy of the submit button that intercepts submit attempts so that there aren't two buttons
}
});
console.log("Submit intercept added.\nButton:", window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButtonCopy);
} catch (error) {
console.error("Failed to add submit intercept:", error);
}
}, ...lockedProperty
},
'validate': {
value: async function (root = undefined) {
if (!this || this === null)
throw new Error("validate: Unable to read API context.");
root = root || this.root;
const flattenArray = (array) => array.reduce((flat, toFlatten) => flat.concat(Array.isArray(toFlatten) ? flattenArray(toFlatten) : toFlatten), []);
try {
const freqency = await this.getFrequency(),
amount = await this.getAmount();
if (!freqency || !amount)
return false;
if (amount < this.FORM_MINIMUM || amount > this.FORM_MAXIMUM)
return console.error("validate:", "Gift amount is invalid:", amount), false;
let requiredFields = Array.from(root.querySelectorAll('label:has(.form-required)'))
.map((label) => document.getElementById(label.htmlFor) || (label.nextElementSibling || label.previousElementSibling))
.filter((_) => !!_) // remove blanks
.filter((field) => {
if (field.name && field.name.includes('[payment_information]'))
return false;
return true;
})
.map((field) => {
if (field.matches("div"))
return [...field.querySelectorAll('input')];
return field;
})
requiredFields = flattenArray(requiredFields);
const valid = requiredFields.every((input) => {
const type = input.tagName.toLowerCase() === 'select' ? 'select' : input.type;
const { name, value, id } = input;
//console.log(type, name, value);
if (name === 'submitted[payment_information][payment_fields][credit][card_number]') {
if (value && value.length === 16)
return true;
return console.error("validate:", name+':', "CC is invalid."), false;
}
if (name === 'submitted[leadership_circle]')
return true;
if (name === 'submitted[donation][other_amount]' || name === 'submitted[donation][recurring_other_amount]')
if (amount)
return true;
switch (type) {
case 'email':
const emailRegex = /^[a-zA-Z0-9._%+-]+@[a-zA-Z0-9.-]+\.[a-zA-Z]{2,}$/;
if (!emailRegex.test(value))
return console.error("validate:", name+':', "Email address is invalid.\n", input, value), false;
return true;
case 'tel':
if (!value || value.length < 10)
return console.error("validate:", name+':', "Phone number is invalid.\n", input, value), false;
return true;
case 'select':
case 'radio':
case 'text':
if (!value || value.length === 0)
return console.error("validate:", name+':', "Field is invalid.\n", input, value), false;
return true;
default:
debug.log("default");
return true;
}
/*if (!value || value.length === 0)
return false;*/
});
return valid;
} catch (error) {
console.error(error);
return false;
}
}, ...lockedProperty
},
//'makeTabbed': { value: function(){} },
'DonationInterrupter': {
value: { init: initDonationInterrupter.bind(api) },
enumerable: true,
configurable: true,
writable: true,
}
});
initHooks(api, ['onFrequencyChange', 'onAmountChange', 'onTrySubmit', 'onSubmit']);
api.Frequencies.addEventListeners('change', (event) => {
if (event.target.checked) {
api.hooks['onFrequencyChange'].forEach((callback) => {
callback.call(api, event.target.value);
});
}
});
Object.entries(api.GiftArrays).forEach(([ key, GiftArray ]) => {
GiftArray.addEventListeners('change', (event) => {
if (event.target.checked) {
api.hooks['onAmountChange'].forEach((callback) => {
callback.call(api, event.target.value);
});
}
});
});
api.SubmitButton.addEventListener('click', (event) => {
api.hooks['onTrySubmit'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(api, event));
});
api.root.addEventListener('submit', (event) => {
api.hooks['onSubmit'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(api, event));
});
if (options.makeTabbed)
api.makeTabbed();
/*if (options.fakeSubmit)
window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButtonCopy = window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButtonCopy || createNewSubmitButton(window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButton, { cloneOriginal: false, hideOriginal: true, observeOriginal: false });*/
return api;
}
function createNewSubmitButton (originalSubmitButton = window.NA.DonationForm.SubmitButton, options = {}) {
const defaultOptions = {
cloneOriginal: true,
hideOriginal: true,
observeOriginal: true,
};
options = { ...defaultOptions, ...options };
const newSubmitButton = document.createElement('button');
//newSubmitButton.id = "submit-button-copy";
newSubmitButton.classList.add("btn");
newSubmitButton.textContent = originalSubmitButton.value;
originalSubmitButton.after(newSubmitButton);
options.hideOriginal && originalSubmitButton.style.setProperty("display", "none");
return newSubmitButton;
}
function initHooks (api, hookNames = []) {
const hooks = Object.fromEntries(hookNames.map((hookName) => ([hookName, new Array()])));
Object.defineProperty(api, 'hooks', {
value: hooks,
...lockedProperty
});
}
function initDonationInterrupter (options = {}) {
const getExpId = () => {
let experiments = window._vwo_exp;
experiments = Object.entries(window._vwo_exp);
let id = experiments.find(([id, data]) => {
const name = data.name;
return name.match(/Donation Interrupter/);
})[1]?.id;
return id;
};
const getExpVariation = (id) => {
let experiment = window._vwo_exp[id];
return experiment.combination_chosen || experiment.combination_selected;
};
const defaultOptions = {
id: [ 'VWO', getExpId(), getExpVariation(getExpId()) ].join('-'),
tokenName: ("NA__MPR_DonationInterrupter:" + [ 'VWO', getExpId(), getExpVariation(getExpId()) ].join('-')),
min: 10,
max: 100,
askAmount: (originalAmount) => {
if (originalAmount > 500) // $500+
return false; // don't show
if (originalAmount >= 400) // $400-$500
return 50;
if (originalAmount >= 300) // $300-$399
return 40;
if (originalAmount >= 200) // $200-$299
return 30;
if (originalAmount >= 100) // $100-$199
return 15;
if (originalAmount < 100) // $100-
return 10;
return false;
},
askFrequency: (originalFrequency) => {
return "monthly";
},
popupHTML: {
headingHTML: (`
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet
`),
bodyHTML: (`
Consectetur adipiscing elit. Sed nec egestas turpis, hendrerit semper nisl. Pellentesque auctor ipsum at
pharetra eleifend. Pellentesque a rhoncus turpis, ut tempus nibh. Donec vel dui hendrerit nisi imperdiet
tincidunt. Class aptent taciti sociosqu ad litora torquent per conubia nostra, per inceptos himenaeos.
Duis efficitur dolor ut nisl blandit imperdiet. Nullam pretium est nunc, tincidunt viverra ligula dapibus.
Duis malesuada:
dui eu venenatis volutpat
urna libero posuere lectus
non tincidunt mauris ligula consectetur felis
lacinia hendrerit enim at molestie
Sed placerat fringilla consequat. Nullam eu pellentesque sem?
`;
document.body.appendChild(dialogElement);
//
//
const api = new Object({
askAmount: options.askAmount,
askFrequency: options.askFrequency,
});
Object.defineProperties(api, {
id: {
value: options.id,
writable: false, enumerable: true, configurable: false,
},
tokenName: {
value: options.tokenName,
writable: false, enumerable: true, configurable: false,
},
Dialog: {
value: dialogElement,
writable: false, enumerable: true, configurable: true,
},
show: {
value: function () {
this.update(),
this.Dialog.showModal(),
vwoCustomEvent(`${this.id}:shown`);
this.storedState.updateTokenProperty("lastShown", getCurrentDate());
this.hooks['onShow'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(this));
}, ...lockedProperty
},
hide: {
value: function () {
this.Dialog.close(),
this.hooks['onHide'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(this));
}, ...lockedProperty
},
update: {
value: function () {
this.Dialog.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent('update'), { bubbles: false });
}, ...lockedProperty
}
});
Object.defineProperty(api, 'storedState', {
value: {
storageApi: localStorage,
getToken: (function () {
const tokenName = this.tokenName,
storageApi = this.storedState.storageApi;
return JSON.parse(storageApi.getItem(tokenName)) || null;
}).bind(api),
setToken: (function (tokenValue) {
const tokenName = this.tokenName,
storageApi = this.storedState.storageApi;
return storageApi.setItem(tokenName, JSON.stringify(tokenValue));
}).bind(api),
updateTokenProperty: (function (tokenPropertyName, tokenPropertyValue) {
let state = this.storedState.getToken() || {};
state[tokenPropertyName] = tokenPropertyValue;
this.storedState.setToken(state);
return (this.storedState.getToken() || {})[tokenPropertyName] || undefined;
}).bind(api),
}
});
initHooks(api, ['onShow', 'onHide', 'onUpdate', 'onYes', 'onNo']);
function handleDialogUpdate (event) { // update dynamic text in the dialog
Array.from(this.Dialog.querySelectorAll('[data-value]')).forEach(async (el) => {
const attributeValue = el.getAttribute('data-value');
const currentAmount = await window.NA.DonationForm.getAmount(),
currentFrequency = await window.NA.DonationForm.getFrequency();
if (attributeValue.match("askAmount")) {
el.textContent = this.askAmount(currentAmount);
} else if (attributeValue.match("askFrequency")) {
el.textContent = this.askFrequency(currentFrequency);
} else if (attributeValue.match("originalAmount") || attributeValue.match("amount")) {
el.textContent = currentAmount;
} else if (attributeValue.match("originalFrequency") || attributeValue.match("frequency")) {
el.textContent = currentFrequency;
}
});
this.hooks['onUpdate'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(this));
}
api.Dialog.addEventListener('update', handleDialogUpdate.bind(api));
//
const handleYes = (async function () {
vwoCustomEvent(`${this.id}:DonationInterrupter:yes`);
const currentAmount = await window.NA.DonationForm.getAmount(),
currentFrequency = await window.NA.DonationForm.getFrequency();
const catchAsyncError = (error) => { console.error("An error occured:", error); debugger; this.hide(); };
window.NA.DonationForm.setFrequency(this.askFrequency(currentFrequency)).then((frequency) => {
console.log("Updated frequency:", frequency);
window.NA.DonationForm.setAmount(this.askAmount(currentAmount)).then((amount) => {
console.log("Updated amount:", amount);
setTimeout(() => {
console.log("Submitting...");
try {
window.NA.DonationForm.submit();
} catch (error) {
console.error("Error when submitting.");
} finally {
this.hide();
}
}, 100);
}).catch(catchAsyncError);
}).catch(catchAsyncError);
this.storedState.updateTokenProperty("lastConverted", getCurrentDate());
}).bind(api);
const handleNo = (function () {
vwoCustomEvent(`${this.id}:DonationInterrupter:no`);
setTimeout(() => {
console.log("Submitting...");
try {
window.NA.DonationForm.submit();
} catch (error) {
console.error("Error when submitting.");
} finally {
this.hide();
}
}, 100);
this.storedState.updateTokenProperty("lastDismissed", getCurrentDate());
}).bind(api);
const handleCancel = (function () {
this.hide();
this.storedState.updateTokenProperty("lastDismissed", getCurrentDate());
}).bind(api);
async function handleDialogButtonClick (event) {
event.preventDefault();
if (event.target.hasAttribute('data-action')) {
if (event.target.getAttribute('data-action').match("yes")) {
await handleYes.call(this);
this.hooks['onYes'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(this));
}
if (event.target.getAttribute('data-action').match("no")) {
await handleNo.call(this);
this.hooks['onNo'].forEach((callback) => callback.call(this));
}
}
}
Array.from(api.Dialog.querySelectorAll('.popup__footer button')).forEach((button) => button.addEventListener('click', handleDialogButtonClick.bind(api)));
if (api.Dialog.querySelector('.btn-dismiss'))
api.Dialog.querySelector('.btn-dismiss').onclick = handleCancel;
window.NA.DonationForm.DonationInterrupter = api;
async function shouldDonationInterrupterShow () {
return new Promise(async (resolve, reject) => {
const shouldSubmit = true,
shouldNotSubmit = false;
const shouldShow = () => { this.show(), resolve(shouldNotSubmit) },
shouldNotShow = () => resolve(shouldSubmit);
try {
const formIsValid = await window.NA.DonationForm.validate();
if (!formIsValid)
return console.log("One or more donation form fields are invalid; donation interrupter will not be shown."),
shouldNotShow();
const currentFrequency = await window.NA.DonationForm.getFrequency(),
currentAmount = await window.NA.DonationForm.getAmount(),
askFrequency = this.askFrequency(currentFrequency),
askAmount = this.askAmount(currentAmount);
if (!currentFrequency || askFrequency == currentFrequency)
return console.log("Ask frequency returned false or invalid; donation interrupter will not be shown."),
shouldNotShow();
if (askAmount == false || askAmount <= 0)
return console.log("Ask amount returned false or invalid; donation interrupter will not be shown."),
shouldNotShow();
} catch (error) {
return console.error(error),
shouldNotShow();
}
try {
/// Summary: shows when not seen before at all, or if seen and dismissed on a day that is not the current day (e.g. yesterday)
const storedState = this.storedState.getToken();
if (!storedState || !storedState.hasOwnProperty("lastShown")) { // has not been seen before; first time
return console.log("Donation interrupter not seen yet; donation interrupter will be shown."),
shouldShow();
} else { // returning visitors
if (storedState.hasOwnProperty("lastConverted")) { // the user has converted from the popup before
return console.log("Already converted; donation interrupter will not be shown."),
shouldNotShow();
}
else if (storedState.hasOwnProperty("lastDismissed") && storedState['lastDismissed'] !== getCurrentDate()) { // if the popup has been dismissed before but the last time it was dismissed is NOT today
return console.log("Donation interrupter dismissed, but not today; donation interrupter will be shown."),
shouldShow();
}
else {
return console.log("Donation interrupter already seen and/or dismissed today; donation interrupter will not be shown."),
shouldNotShow();
}
}
} catch (error) {
return console.error(error),
shouldNotShow();
}
});
}
window.NA.DonationForm.interceptSubmit(shouldDonationInterrupterShow.bind(api));
resolve(api);
} catch (error) {
console.error(error);
}
});
}
window.NA = window.NA || {};
window.NA.DonationForm = window.NA.DonationForm || {};
window.NA.DonationForm.init = async function init () {
console.log("Initializing donation form API. Waiting for required elements....");
return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
const asyncWaitForElement=async function(e,r=100,t=1e4){r=Number.isInteger(r)&&r>0&&r<=100?r:parseInt(r);let n="Array";if("NaN"==r)return console.error("Invalid refresh interval:",r);Array.isArray(e)||"string"!=typeof e||(n="string",e=[e]);let l=e=>document.querySelector(e),i=e=>e.every(e=>!!l(e));return new Promise((R,a)=>{let m=(e,r=null)=>(r&&clearInterval(r),R("Array"==n||e.length>1?e.map(e=>l(e)):l(e[0]))),o=n=>{console.error(`${n.name}: ${n.message}`);let l=()=>asyncWaitForElement(e,r=100,t=1e4);return a(n,l)};try{if(i(e))return m(e);let s=setInterval(()=>{if(i(e))return m(e,s)},1e3/r);setTimeout(()=>{try{if(!i(e)){clearInterval(s);let r=Error(`Failed to find matching elements within ${t}ms`);throw r.name="Timed Out",r}}catch(n){return o(n)}},t)}catch(u){return o(u)}})};
asyncWaitForElement([ 'form.webform-client-form', '#webform-component-donation--recurs-monthly', '#webform-component-donation--amount', '#webform-component-donation--recurring-amount', '.form-actions input[type="submit"]' ]).then(([ componentDonationForm, componentFrequency, componentAmountOnetime, componentAmountMonthly, formSubmitButton ]) => {
const api = DonationFormAPI({
root: componentDonationForm,
frequencyRadios: [...componentFrequency.querySelectorAll('.form-type-radio')],
amountRadios: [
[...componentAmountOnetime.querySelectorAll('div > .form-type-radio, div > .webform-component-textfield')],
[...componentAmountMonthly.querySelectorAll('div > .form-type-radio, div > .webform-component-textfield')],
],
submitButton: formSubmitButton,
//
});
window.NA.DonationForm = { ...window.NA.DonationForm, ...api };
resolve(window.NA.DonationForm);
}).catch((error) => reject(error));
});
};
}catch(e) {console.error(e)}
return vwo_$('head')[0] && vwo_$('head')[0].lastChild;})("head")}}, R_940895_39_1_2_0:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {
try{
var ctx=vwo_$(x),el;
/*vwo_debug log("Revert","content",""); vwo_debug*/;
el=vwo_$('[vwo-element-id="1740425171461"]');
el.revertContentOp().remove();
} catch(e) {console.error(e)}
try{
var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
/*vwo_debug log("Revert","addElement","body"); vwo_debug*/(el=vwo_$('[vwo-element-id="1740425171462"]')).remove();
} catch(e) {console.error(e)}
return vwo_$('head')[0] && vwo_$('head')[0].lastChild;})("head")}}, C_940895_63_1_2_0:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
/*vwo_debug log("paste",".actions"); vwo_debug*/!(el=vwo_$(".actions")).parent().find('[vwo-op-1742589780926=""]').length&&el.after('
By submitting, you consent to receive information about MPR\'s programs and offerings. You may opt-out at any time clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of any email communication. View our Privacy Policy.
Before you go, would you consider becoming a sustainer to MPR News?
`),
bodySectionHTML: (`
Your monthly gift supports trusted journalism, music discovery, and community
conversation for all – no matter where you live or how you listen. From the
broadcast to the podcast, on-air and online, gifts from individuals power everything
you find at Minnesota Public Radio.
Would you consider becoming a sustainer by converting your one-time gift to a
monthly gift today?
`),
min: 100, // do not show if original gift is below this amount
max: 500, // do not show if original gift is above this amount
askAmount: (originalAmount) => {
// the input is the original amount
// the output is the ask amount, or false if the input does not map to an ask amount
if (originalAmount > 500.00) // $500+
return false; // don't show
if (originalAmount >= 400.00) // $400-$500
return 50.00;
if (originalAmount >= 300.00) // $300-$399
return 40.00;
if (originalAmount >= 200.00) // $200-$299
return 30.00;
if (originalAmount >= 100.00) // $100-$199
return 15.00;
if (originalAmount < 100.00) // $100-
return 10.00;
return false;
},
};
//
//
//
// * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
//
//
//
window.NA.DonationForm.init({ makeTabbed: false }).then(async (donationFormApi) => {
//console.log("DonationForm:", donationFormApi);
console.log("Donation Form: %c READY %c", 'background-color: MediumSeaGreen; color: white; font-weight: bold;', 'background-color: unset; color: unset; font-weight: unset;');
console.log(donationFormApi);
const interrupter = await donationFormApi.DonationInterrupter.init({
min: DONATION_INTERRUPTER_OPTIONS.min,
max: DONATION_INTERRUPTER_OPTIONS.max,
askAmount: DONATION_INTERRUPTER_OPTIONS.askAmount,
popupHTML: {
headingHTML: DONATION_INTERRUPTER_OPTIONS.headingSectionHTML,
bodyHTML: DONATION_INTERRUPTER_OPTIONS.bodySectionHTML,
},
});
//console.log("DonationInterrupter", interrupter);
console.log("Donation Interrupter: %c READY %c", 'background-color: MediumSeaGreen; color: white; font-weight: bold;', 'background-color: unset; color: unset; font-weight: unset;');
console.log(interrupter);
//interrupter.show(); // debug: always show popup immediately when page loads
}).catch((error) => { console.log("Donation Interrupter: %c FAILED %c An error occured when initializing the API:", 'background-color: Tomato; color: white; font-weight: bold;', 'background-color: unset; color: Tomato; font-weight: unset;'), console.error(error) });
}catch(e) {console.error(e)}
return vwo_$('head')[0] && vwo_$('head')[0].lastChild;})("head")}}, C_940895_62_1_2_0:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
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if(!vwo_$.fn.vwoRevertHtml){
return;
};
var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
/*vwo_debug log("Revert","remove","H1:tm('Support The Splendid Table Today')"); vwo_debug*/(el=vwo_$("H1:tm('Support The Splendid Table Today')")).vwoRevertCss(),(el=vwo_$("H1:tm('Support The Splendid Table Today')")).vwoRevertCss();})("H1:tm('Support The Splendid Table Today')")}}, C_940895_62_1_2_1:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
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if(!vwo_$.fn.vwoRevertHtml){
return;
};
var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
/*vwo_debug log("Revert","editElement","STRONG:tm('Success! You’re subscribed!')"); vwo_debug*/(el=vwo_$("STRONG:tm('Success! You’re subscribed!')")).vwoRevertCss(),(el=vwo_$("STRONG:tm('Success! You’re subscribed!')")).vwoRevertCss();})("STRONG:tm('Success! You’re subscribed!')")}}, C_940895_62_1_3_0:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
/*vwo_debug log("visibility","H1:tm('Support The Splendid Table Today')"); vwo_debug*/(el=vwo_$("H1:tm('Support The Splendid Table Today')")).vwoCss({visibility:"hidden !important"}),(el=vwo_$("H1:tm('Support The Splendid Table Today')")).vwoCss({display:"none !important"});})("H1:tm('Support The Splendid Table Today')")}}, R_940895_62_1_3_0:{ fn:function(log,nonce=''){return (function(x) {
if(!vwo_$.fn.vwoRevertHtml){
return;
};
var el,ctx=vwo_$(x);
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Big data drives Minnesota's COVID-19 response. Take a look under the hood.
Gov. Tim Walz provides an update on the state's next steps to respond to COVID-19 during a news conference on on April 8, 2020 in St. Paul. Walz is using a model from the Minnesota Department of Health and the University of Minnesota to predict the health impacts of COVID-19. But with data so uncertain, the model doesn’t predict one future so much as many.
Updated: April 17, 2020 at 8:55 a.m. | Posted: April 16, 2020 at 7:30 p.m.
Gov. Tim Walz and other state leaders are basing their response to COVID-19 in part on a computer model constructed through a collaboration between the Minnesota Department of Health and the University of Minnesota School of Public Health. It’s one of a number of computer models developed by health agencies and academics around the world to predict the course of the pandemic.
The models predict the demand for ICU beds and the number of people who might die from the disease. With so much unknown about COVID-19, they use estimates about how quickly it might spread and how deadly it is to make their predictions.
Walz and other state leaders then weigh these predictions against other factors, such as the social and economic impacts of a shelter-in-place order, to determine which responses to require or advise.
Minnesota’s COVID-19 model doesn’t make a single prediction about the impact of the disease. It makes thousands of predictions: One for each combination of variables — from how long individuals are infectious to how long a typical hospital stay lasts — replicated over a host of different scenarios based on how long the state maintains its stay-at-home policy and social distancing practices.
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For each of those scenarios with their combined thousands of simulations and variables, researchers have identified a “baseline” — a simulation based on inputs they think are particularly plausible, given the available data.
Researchers shared data from 100 of their thousands of simulations with MPR News Thursday — a randomly chosen 50 simulations from two specific scenarios. Those simulations were run on April 8, the day Walz extended Minnesota’s stay-at-home order through early May, and are being regularly updated with new information.
Visualizing the simulations
This chart shows a sample of 50 of those simulations, for a scenario in which three things happen: Minnesota ends its stay-at-home order in early May; shifts to generalized social distancing for the remainder of May; and encourages vulnerable adults to stay home for much of the rest of the year. The researchers behind the model have dubbed this “Scenario 4A.”
All of the simulations under those conditions show daily deaths from the disease peaking in the summer or early fall, but with considerable differences in that peak’s timing and severity.
50 different simulations from Minnesota's COVID-19 model.
David H. Montgomery | MPR News
To understand the range of impacts these simulations predict, consider these three: The dark line in the graphic below shows the baseline simulation, based on inputs the researchers consider to be particularly plausible. The green and blue lines show two extreme, less likely simulations, with input variables on the outer edges of what the researchers consider plausible.
Under one of the extreme simulations — represented by the blue line — COVID-19 hits Minnesota hard, with thousands of people dying just after the Fourth of July.
In the other extreme simulation — represented by the green line — Minnesota avoids any serious outbreaks into September, when it suffers a relatively mild peak.
The two simulations are created by different inputs to the equation — different assumptions about how the disease might behave.
In the first scenario, represented by the blue line, COVID-19 is considered to be more infectious, with a significantly higher probability of transmission than in the latter. It hits sick people much harder, requiring more than 16 days in intensive care for the average ICU patient, compared to just under 11 days in the latter simulation that’s represented by the green line.
Because of these differences, the first scenario involves far more infections, and patients take up ICU beds for longer. That reduces the supply of intensive care beds available for other patients who need them — a recipe for catastrophic results.
The baseline simulation, considered more likely than the extreme scenarios, is in between: It suggests a late July peak with around 500 fewer daily deaths at the peak than the most extreme simulation.
Three different simulations from Minnesota's COVID-19 model.
David H. Montgomery | MPR News
These three scenarios highlight how what we don’t know about COVID-19 makes the disease hard to predict. Epidemiologists have guesses for how contagious the disease is, and how deadly it will be, but don’t know for certain because it’s so new. That means even the best attempts to predict how it will impact Minnesota involve considerable uncertainty.
Comparing the scenarios
The model’s predictions don’t just depend on unknowns about the disease. They also take into account questions about how humans will respond to COVID-19 through staying at home, social distancing, or continuing business as usual.
In addition to scenario 4A, researchers have also simulated a number of other scenarios, from one in which Minnesota takes no action in response to COVID-19 to one with a short stay-at-home order but longer forms of mild social distancing.
The simulations predict deaths as well as the demand for ICU beds, a critical component of the response. Someone with a severe case of COVID-19 who needs an ICU bed but isn’t able to get one is much more likely to die from the disease — 100 times more likely, in the model’s parameters.
The data researchers provided to MPR News this week took into account two scenarios: Scenario 4A, and Scenario 2, in which Minnesota ends its stay-at-home order on April 10. Both were developed before Walz extended the state’s stay-at-home order to May 4.
Both scenarios were run across 1,000 different simulations, of which 50 each are shown below, outlining daily demand for intensive care beds.
The Scenario 2 simulations, in orange, show the disease hitting Minnesota faster and harder than the simulations with a longer stay-at-home order and social distancing. The baseline simulation — which researchers consider most likely under the scenarios — is highlighted in each.
Simulations from two different scenarios in Minnesota's COVID-19 model.
David H. Montgomery | MPR News
Minnesota has been expanding its ICU capacity in its efforts to be able to handle the disease at its peak. As of April 16, officials estimated the state could have 2,625 ICU beds within 72 hours — a combination of the beds it has now, and beds it would be able to make available in a few days to respond to demand.
Almost all of the simulations the model produced show Minnesota’s outbreak requiring more than those 2,625 ICU beds. Only two simulations of the 100 provided to MPR News stay under that threshold.
Most simulations show a greater ICU need than Minnesota has now.
David H. Montgomery | MPR News
The University of Minnesota/Health Department simulations stand out among their counterparts for one major reason: They predict that a lot of people will die from the disease, even in the best-case scenario.
The baseline simulation for Scenario 4A, with a stay-at-home order into May and social distancing through the end of that month, still predicts that 25,000 people will die in Minnesota by the time the outbreak is over.
That’s a much higher mortality rate than most other models are predicting. For example: Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House’s COVID-19 task force, predicted last week that the total death toll for the entire country would be “more like 60,000” than his earlier prediction of “100,000 to 200,000.”
But if 25,000 people were to die of COVID-19 in Minnesota and the state’s deaths were proportional to its share of the U.S. population, the country would be looking at 1.45 million COVID-19 deaths — an order of magnitude above Fauci’s latest prediction.
Cumulative deaths under Minnesota's COVID-19 model simulations.
David H. Montgomery | MPR News
Similarly, the models released April 13 by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predict 656 COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota through Aug. 4 — a shorter time frame than Minnesota’s model takes into account, but still more than an order of magnitude below it. Whereas the Minnesota model predicts a summer peak, the current IHME model has Minnesota’s cases peaking in late April or early May.
Every model of the disease makes different assumptions and uses different methodologies — and all are trying to simplify and predict a complex and evolving situation, with a host of unknowns. Minnesota’s researchers said they believe their model is the best fit for the state.
“We feel good about the model and the structure. It aligns well with the disease as we understand it right now,” said Stefan Gildemeister, the state’s health economist, who said that he feels the University of Washington model in particular includes “some incredibly optimistic assumptions.”
The researchers are regularly updating their simulations as new information becomes available.
An earlier version of the model, produced in March, for instance, was based primarily on data from China. The new version incorporates early data from Minnesota and western Europe.
Future versions of the model will include additional data and may change accordingly.
Health officials for weeks have been increasingly raising the alarm over the spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States. The disease is transmitted through respiratory droplets, coughs and sneezes, similar to the way the flu can spread.
Government and medical leaders are urging people to wash their hands frequently and well, refrain from touching their faces, cover their coughs, disinfect surfaces and avoid large crowds, all in an effort to curb the virus’ rapid spread.
The state of Minnesota has temporarily closed schools, while administrators work to determine next steps, and is requiring a temporary closure of all in-person dining at restaurants, bars and coffee shops, as well as theaters, gyms, yoga studios and other spaces in which people congregate in close proximity.
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