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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Hurricane Isaias likely tracking near Florida this weekend

Category 1 storm may impact Florida this weekend.

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It’s hurricane season. That means people in places like Florida are ready to board up at a moment’s notice. And Isaias looks likely to make a weekend run close to Flordia’s coast.

Hurricane track

Hurricane Isaias is moving through the western Bahamas Friday. The official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track brings the storm very close to Florida’s east coast this weekend.

Hurricane Isaias forecast track
Hurricane Isaias forecast track
NOAA/National Hurricane Center

It’s interesting to note that the suite of spaghetti models lays out a tightly clustered track envelope for the next few days. This gives forecasters higher than usual confidence in the track forecast.

Hurricane Isaias forecast model tracks
Hurricane Isaias forecast model tracks
NOAA/tropicaltidbits

It should be noted that the often trusty European model brings Isaias further west into Florida.

Intensity forecast

Isaias ramped up to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds Thursday night. Official NHC forecasts bring intensity to 90 mph this weekend as Isaias strafes the Florida coast.

Most intensity models keep Isaias a category 1 storm. A few models have occasionally boosted the storm to Category 2.

Hurricane Isaias model intensity forecasts
Hurricane Isaias model intensity forecasts
NOAA via tropical tidbits

What to watch for

If Isaias tracks as off the east coast of Florida as currently forecast expected, damage in Florida may be limited. If the storm moves west as the European model suggests, impacts and damage could increase substantially.

Stay tuned.