Accumulating snow potential for northern half of Minnesota Saturday

Our weather pattern is changing across Minnesota.

A strong low-pressure system crossing Minnesota is delivering a cold rain up north today. Temperatures hover in the upper 30s and low 40s. Northern Minnesota should pick up between a half inch and 1 inch of rainfall by Thursday morning. A few wet snowflakes may mix in Wednesday night.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model shows the rain up north, and a few isolated afternoon pop-up thunderstorms possible favoring the Interstate 35 corridor between the Twin Cities and Duluth.

A couple of storms this afternoon could pack winds and hail. There is a marginal risk for severe storms between the northern Twin Cities and Duluth.

Saturday snow chances

Wednesday’s weather maps still strongly suggest accumulating snow for Saturday in parts of northern Minnesota. As usual, there are still forecast model differences on the likely track and magnitude of possible snowfall up north Saturday.

The Canadian model drags a cold low-pressure system across Minnesota Saturday. It suggests snow for much of the northern half of Minnesota.

How much snow?

It’s still too early in the forecast process for high confidence in location and snowfall totals. That said, here are some of the forecast model solutions coming out today. The European model suggests accumulating snow will favor far northern Minnesota near the Canadian border.

The Canadian model favors a more southward track, with heavier snow across central Minnesota from the Brainerd lakes area through I-35 around Hinckley into northwest Wisconsin.

Stay tuned as the forecast models try to refine the snowfall zone in the next 24 to 48 hours.