A warm and windy Sunday; rain at times on Monday

Yes, it has been unusually warm lately. We set new Twin Cities daily high temperature records on 3 of the past 5 days. We also tied our record high on one day.

The low temp of 60 degrees at MSP airport on Saturday was the warmest November low temperature in Twin Cities weather records, which go back to 1872:

Highs in the 70s are forecast over roughly the southern half of Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin this Sunday afternoon, with mainly 60s in northern Minnesota. Keep in mind that our average Twin Cities high temp is only 46 degrees this time of year!

Windy

A strengthening low pressure system over western North Dakota will ramp up our winds today. Winds could gust to 40-50 mph in the Twin Cities metro area Sunday afternoon, and they could gust over 50 mph at times in western Minnesota.

Wind advisories (shaded brown) cover much of Minnesota and parts of west-central Wisconsin until 6 p.m. this Sunday:

Here are details of the advisory:

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1012 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2020 MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014-023-024-090000- /O.CON.KMPX.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-201109T0000Z/ Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns- Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington- Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth- Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-St. Croix-Pierce- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Granite Falls, Olivia, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, Albert Lea, Osceola, Hudson, and River Falls 1012 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and central, east central, south central, southeast, southwest and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Rain chances spreads eastward Sunday night

Parts of western Minnesota could see scattered showers late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Rain chances spread into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin after midnight. Periods of rain are likely on Monday, with some embedded thunderstorms also possible.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Sunday evening through Monday evening:

There could be a rain/snow mix Monday in parts of northwestern Minnesota.

Tuesday snow chances

One forecast model has the Twin Cities metro area near the northern edge of accumulating snow Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. That model shows the highest accumulations from south-central and southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Check forecast updates later today.

Cooler temps

Twin Cities metro area temps are projected to reach the upper 30s Tuesday, followed by lower 40s Wednesday, upper 30s Thursday and lower 40s Friday.

South Florida braces for Eta

Tropical storm Eta was centered just north of central Cuba Sunday morning. Eta could reach hurricane strength Sunday night, and hurricane warnings have been issued for the Florida Keys, with tropical storm warnings elsewhere in south Florida:

Here’s a bit closer look at Eta’s projected path, from the NWS National Hurricane Center:

Here’s the Sunday morning Eta update:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 33...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Corrected distances from Canagua Cuba ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 79.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF CANAGUA CUBA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood including Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Cuban radars indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located just north of central Cuba near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 79.2 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a northwestward turn by this evening, and a westward motion by early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas today, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning: Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm). The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

The NWS National Hurricane Center updates it’s forecast every few hours.

Eta was a Category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in Nicaragua on Tuesday:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.