Mild bias continues next week; colder after Dec. 15?
Rain or snow chance around December 13-14?
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This is looking like a December to remember in Minnesota.
I’ve written ad nauseam this week about mild air and our lack of snow cover as we move into December. Next week’s weather maps seem quite content with the status quo across the Upper Midwest.
Other than a few stray weekend flurries and snow showers, the next warm front blows through Minnesota Sunday.
![Surface weather maps through 6 am Monday](https://img.apmcdn.org/d93286610206de18f7b8c7c17eacc45878f6f11d/uncropped/18be0c-20201204-surface-weather-maps-through-6-am-monday.gif)
Next week brings another significantly milder than average air mass to Minnesota. NOAA’s six to 10-day outlook continues to paint a bubble of relative warmth right across the Upper Midwest next week.
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![NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook](https://img.apmcdn.org/c10a4c43dea198d7e765027f65916746caf14563/uncropped/6e92c3-20201204-noaa-6-to-10-day-temperature-outlook.gif)
Highs in the 40s will be common again across southern Minnesota next week. I think the Twin Cities and southwest Minnesota will reach 50 degrees once again by next Wednesday.
![Forecast high temperatures Wednesday, December 9](https://img.apmcdn.org/4dbf8f6d8aaefceb42d9aa3564c12d2f6f0ca217/uncropped/e6a671-20201204-forecast-high-temperatures-wednesday-december-9.png)
Possible rain or snow next weekend?
Earlier today I wrote about the chances for a white Christmas across Minnesota. The American, Canadian, and European models all bring some type of weather system into the Upper Midwest late the weekend of Dec. 12-13.
Here’s the European model’s output for midnight on Sunday night.
![European model (ECMWF) forecast for midnight December 14](https://img.apmcdn.org/b9e4faacd96796714833eb096902d6ad6fc5bd79/uncropped/7a99ee-20201204-european-model-ecmwf-forecast-for-midnight-december-14.png)
Colder by mid-December?
After the system passes, most forecast models suggest colder air by mid-December. NOAA’s GFS 16-day temperatures output suggest a brief foray into the teens and twenties in mid_December.
![NOAA GFS model 16-day temperature outlook for Minneapolis](https://img.apmcdn.org/492ca84eb617401a7492a37fe15cd6e6cb729aa2/uncropped/e0337d-20201204-noaa-gfs-model-16-day-temperature-outlook-for-minneapolis.png)
So far I don’t see any brutal Arctic outbreaks just yet. But meteorological winter is young.
Stay tuned.