Dec. 20 update on COVID-19 in MN: Hospitalizations, cases ease; deadly December continues
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Updated 11:39 a.m.
Downward trends in the trajectory of new COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions and test positivity rates in Minnesota continued Sunday.
Those encouraging signs, however, came as state health officials reported another 70 COVID-19 deaths in the state, raising December’s record monthly death toll to 1,257.
Averaged over the past week, the number of deaths reported each day is also dropping — that number was 58 on Sunday, down from as high as 67 last week. But that average is still far above figures seen less than two months ago. On Nov. 1, the average daily death toll was 18.
And any recent improvements in COVID-19 stats could be jeopardized by upcoming holiday gatherings.
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While acknowledging that some data in recent days showed “positive signs … there is still a lot of virus circulating in our communities,” Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm told reporters Friday. “It’s just really critical that we keep our guard up” going into the year-end holidays.
“We know that we need to see two solid weeks of this kind of decline to make sure that it’s really a valid decline and not just an artifact of numbers being slow to come in,” she added.
Here are Minnesota’s current COVID-19 statistics:
4,850 deaths (70 new)
397,319 positive cases (2,705 new); 369,912 off isolation (93 percent)
5.2 million tests, 2.86 million tested (about 50 percent of the population)
6.8 percent seven-day positive test rate (officials find 5 percent or more concerning)
The seven-day trend for new hospital admissions has dropped to fewer than 145 a day — a level not seen since early November.
The rolling seven-day average of new cases each day fell below 2,700 on Saturday for the first time since Nov. 2. And the average test positivity rate over the past week fell to about 6.8 percent — down from more than 11 percent at the start of the month, and more than 15 percent in mid-November.
Vaccinations began last week — another positive sign, with 947 health care workers vaccinated as of Friday afternoon, added Kris Ehresmann, the state’s infectious disease director.
And shipments of the newly approved Moderna vaccine started Sunday, bolstering the early doses of the Pfizer vaccine that arrived last week.
Still, Ehresmann cautioned that people who get vaccinated will still need to wear masks and take other measures in the short term until more data pours in on the vaccines’ effects in stopping the spread. The vaccine keeps people from developing COVID-19, she noted, but it's not clear if they can still acquire and spread the virus.
New cases, deaths
The Health Department’s newest tally of confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases put the pandemic total at 397,319. In about 93 percent of those cases, people have recovered to the point they no longer need to be isolated.
The deaths reported Sunday raised Minnesota’s toll to 4,850. Among those who’ve died, nearly 65 percent had been living in long-term care or assisted living facilities; most had underlying health problems.
The toll remains awful. Nearly 2,400 COVID-19 deaths have been reported during November and December. That’s nearly half of all the deaths in the pandemic that started back in March.
Caseloads spread across age groups
People in their 20s still make up the age bracket with the state’s largest number of confirmed cases — more than 76,000 since the pandemic began, including more than 40,000 among people ages 20 to 24.
The number of high school-age children confirmed with the disease has also grown, with more than 30,000 total cases among children ages 15 to 19 since the pandemic began.
Although less likely to feel the worst effects of the disease and end up hospitalized, experts worry youth and young adults will spread it to grandparents and other vulnerable populations.
It’s especially concerning because people can have the coronavirus and spread COVID-19 when they don’t have symptoms.
New cases ebb in rural Minnesota
Central and western Minnesota drove much of the increase in new cases over the past five weeks, while Hennepin and Ramsey counties showed some of the slowest case growth in the state.
After a spike in confirmed cases through much of November and early December, all regions of the state have seen new case numbers plateau or fall.
Hot spots continue to pop up in rural counties relative to their population.
Caseloads still heaviest among people of color
In Minnesota and across the country, COVID-19 has hit communities of color disproportionately hard in both cases and deaths. That’s been especially true for Minnesotans of Hispanic descent for much of the pandemic.
Even as new case counts ease from their peak a few weeks ago, the data shows people of color continue to be hit hardest.
Distrust of the government, together with deeply rooted health and economic disparities, have hampered efforts to boost testing among communities of color, officials say, especially among unauthorized immigrants who fear their personal information may be used to deport them.
Similar trends have been seen among Minnesota’s Indigenous residents. Counts among Indigenous people jumped in October relative to population.
Officials continue to plead with Minnesotans to wear masks in public gathering spaces, socially distance, stay home if they don’t feel well and otherwise stay vigilant against the spread of COVID-19.
‘Really unsafe situations’
Officials have been anticipating another wave of climbing caseloads and hospitalizations soon originating from Thanksgiving holiday celebrations. But it hasn’t happened yet.
State public health leaders this week and last said they were somewhat hopeful that many families heeded the public pleas to not gather in big groups for Thanksgiving, and so the worst-case scenarios of a post-holiday surge might not materialize.
But they’ve also cautioned that it’s too soon to say a Thanksgiving celebration surge will not happen.
They continue to urge Minnesotans to do all they can — wearing masks in public gathering spaces, socially distancing and staying home if you don’t feel well — to guard against the spread of the disease.
Public health authorities have been dismayed this week by reports that scores of Minnesota bars and restaurants are opening or planning to open in defiance of the governor’s order prohibiting indoor service.
Bar and restaurant gatherings remain “really unsafe situations,” said Ehresmann. “This is a serious disease and we have to take it seriously.”
Walz and other officials have expressed hope that the vaccines arriving now in Minnesota and across the country will ease the strain and the need for restrictions eventually, but not yet.
Shots began going into arms in Minnesota this week, but officials caution it will take months for vaccinations to be widespread in the state.
The governor told reporters that he realizes the restrictions are painful, but said the pandemic is still threatening to overwhelm hospitals.
“It would be so much easier if none of this was happening,” he said Wednesday as he extended his current monthlong ban on indoor bar and restaurant service through the holidays, a move he described as a painful but necessary step as they state continues to struggle to stem the spread of COVID-19.
“It would be so much easier if the neighbors weren't dying,” he said, “but that's not reality.”
Developments around the state
Judge denies motion for injunction against Walz’s executive order
A federal judge has denied an effort to place an injunction on Gov. Tim Walz's executive order limiting social gatherings and youth sports during the pandemic.
The parents' group called Let Them Play MN filed the suit against the state and sought the preliminary injunction, and said it is appealing Friday's ruling.
While the group's focus is youth sports, they claimed in court that Walz's order violated their constitutional right to protest, including the right to free speech.
The suit claimed the restrictions in the executive order were arbitrary and irrational, and not based on science.
In denying the motion for an injunction, Judge John Tunheim wrote Friday that the executive order's "prohibition on social gatherings has nothing to do with any message that might be conveyed at such gatherings. Rather, the prohibition has the singular intent of curbing the spread of COVID-19. As such, (the order) is neutral on its face and is thus a content-neutral regulation."
"No one is in favor of limiting cherished constitutional rights, nor should they be. But the State’s measured response, focused directly on the likely causes of the recent surge, satisfies judicial scrutiny," Tunheim wrote. "It is hoped that the restrictions on public activity will prove successful and brief."
In a statement posted online Saturday, Let Them Play MN said it has filed an appeal to the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals, seeking to overturn Tunheim's ruling. They also allege Tunheim has conflicts of interest and are seeking to have a new judge assigned to the case.
— MPR News staff
Inmate at Faribault prison dies after COVID diagnosis
The Minnesota Department of Corrections reported Saturday that an inmate at the state prison in Faribault died after recently being diagnosed with COVID-19.
The 70-year-old man died early Saturday at a hospital in Faribault; his name has not been released. He's the ninth state prison inmate to die after a COVID diagnosis — and the fifth at the Faribault prison.
The facility has more than 270 active COVID cases among its more than 17-hundred inmates, along with more than 40 active cases among staff members.
The Department of Corrections says it's working with state health officials on a plan for vaccinating inmates and staff when guidance comes from the federal government.
In addition to the nine deaths of inmates reported by the Department of Corrections, the Minnesota Department of Human Services has reported the deaths of two people in the Minnesota Sex Offender Program at Moose Lake.
— MPR News staff
Top headlines
Minn. Sen. Jerry Relph dies of COVID-19 complications: The first-term state senator from St. Cloud died Friday following a month-long hospitalization. He tested positive for COVID-19 after attending a post-election party with other Republican senators in November.
Vaccines should roll out soon in Minnesota long-term care facilities: As Minnesota health care workers receive the initial doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine, residents of long-term care facilities are next in line to start receiving those shots — perhaps by the end of the month.
At Mayo, mixed emotions as front-line workers get first COVID vaccines; hospital waits for next delivery: A team of doctors and nurses at the clinic who helped diagnose and treat Olmsted County's first COVID-19 patients were first in line Friday to get their COVID-19 vaccines. Amid cheers and celebration, the size and speed of Mayo’s next vaccine allocation remains in flux.
State cracking down on bars and restaurants opening against order: Bars and restaurants around Minnesota that opened in violation of Gov. Tim Walz’s order banning inside dining and drinking are finding out there is no negotiation around the restrictions. The attorney general’s office is contacting them one by one, threatening big fines and liquor license suspensions for noncompliance.
COVID-19 in Minnesota
Data in these graphs are based on the Minnesota Department of Health's cumulative totals released at 11 a.m. daily. You can find more detailed statistics on COVID-19 at the Health Department website.