How can Minnesota winters be milder and snowier at the same time?

The first third of meteorological winter is in the books. And so far Minnesota’s winter weather seems counterintuitive.

Mild so far

The winter season is running significantly milder than average so far across the Upper Midwest.

December temperatures ran 5.6 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities. The mild trend is even stronger in the Red River Valley over the past month. Temperatures have run between 7 and 10 degrees warmer than average in western Minnesota in the past month.

Snowy in places

Snowfall trends show some interesting patterns so far this winter. The Interstate 35 corridor has been snowier than average between the Twin Cities and Duluth.

Here’s a look at total snowfall so far this season.

30.5 inches of snow has fallen at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport so far this season. That’s 7.6 inches above average. Duluth has already picked up 47.7 inches. That’s about a foot above average for the season so far.

Here’s a look at snowfall departure from average so far this season.

Higher than average snowfall totals also cover the Brainerd Lakes area and much of north-central Minnesota. Snowfall is running a bit below average in far northern, western and southern Minnesota.

Here are some snowfall totals and departures for select locations.

• International Falls, Minn.: 24.4 inches (minus 8.2 inches)

• Fargo, N.D.: 16.3 inches (minus 4.7 inches)

• Rochester, Minn.: 12 inches (minus 7.9 inches)

Milder and snowier?

So this winter is falling in line with a trend that’s been more common in Minnesota. Temperatures are warmer than average overall. But snowfall is abundant in many areas.

That seems counterintuitive but actually makes sense in the context of climate change. Temperature data shows Minnesota winters have warmed about 5 degrees on average since 1970.

Temperatures during our milder Minnesota winters are still below freezing most of the time, so the lowest mile of the atmosphere is still cold enough for snow. Added water vapor in the atmosphere provides extra moisture to wring out as snowfall.

So Minnesota winters can be both milder and snowier than average as our climate warms.