Winter is coming: First big snow in sight for parts of Minnesota?

‘Tis the season.

As we move deeper into November it’s typical to get the first significant accumulating snows of the season in Minnesota.

After a delightful weekend forecast this weekend, the forecast models favor a stronger rain and snow event for Minnesota next week.

It’s still far too early to be precise about timing, coverage, and potential rain and snowfall totals. But the odds of a plowable snow event for parts of Minnesota next week are growing with each forecast model run.

Here’s an early look at some possible outcomes.

The system

Forecast models differ on the makeup of next week’s possible storm system. Some grab hold of a single low-pressure system. Some suggest two separate lows coming through between next Wednesday and Friday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s American GFS model spins up a low pressure and tracks it from Iowa to Lake Superior between Wednesday and Friday. This scenario would produce significant snow in northern Minnesota with less in the south.

The Europen model wraps up a deep low-pressure system in northwest Iowa by Thursday evening. This scenario would lay down a heavy snow swath through central Minnesota, on the northern edge of the Twin Cities.

I won’t post any snowfall model output just yet. It’s just too early for any credible map totals yet. But I will say that multiple solutions crank out double-digit snowfall totals later next week for different parts of Minnesota.

It’s about time for the first big snow of the season. And if we pick up significant snow cover across Minnesota next week, that will lay the groundwork for some persistent colder temperatures. Forecast models are cranking out highs in the 20s and 30s for much of late November at this point.

So enjoy our next (last?) run of beautiful November days this weekend.

Winter is coming.